On paper at least - and the world is several forests worse off since this series was first scheduled - Pakistan versus Australia threatens to be the ultimate mismatch. This is, after all, first versus eighth in the ICC Test Championship. Australia are not so much on a roll as on a different planet, while Pakistan are embroiled in the type of internecine warfare that would give Cain and Abel a bad name. But it was not always thus. Back in June, when a cagey Australia capitulated to Shoaib Akhtar and Co. in their midwinter one-day series, Pakistan looked to be approaching their best form for six years. Admittedly, trouble was already on the horizon - in May, their second Test against New Zealand had to be cancelled following a terrorist attack - but unlike Graham Thorpe, Pakistan were not allowing their domestic unrest to affect their game. Inzamam-ul-Haq was fresh from a triple century at Lahore, Waqar Younis was captaining with an authority unseen since the days of Imran Khan, and the future, on the field at least, was rosy.

But a life of exile has taken its toll. After successive one-day tournament trouncings in Tangiers and Nairobi, and a miserable Champions Trophy clash with Sri Lanka, Pakistan have hit something approaching rock-bottom. Their senior citizens have given up the ghost: Inzamam is undergoing surgery on an injured heel, Saeed Anwar and Wasim Akram have been dropped, rested or retired, depending on which version you care to believe, and Yousuf Youhana, Pakistan's most reliable middle-order batsman in recent years along with Inzamam, is also out with a shoulder injury. Oh, and Waqar Younis is under fire for supposed megalomaniacy, and the coach and manager have both been sacked. "With other countries, you know what you're going to get," said Steve Waugh. "But with Pakistan, half the time they don't even know themselves."

And therein lies the crux. If any side can spring a surprise from this sort of situation, it is the cornered tigers of Pakistan. They bounced back to win the 1992 World Cup after staring elimination in the face with a total of 74 all out in their group match against England. And more recently, on their tour of New Zealand in 2000-01, a side containing four debutants swept to a 299-run victory at Auckland. New Zealand, 105 for 1 overnight on the final day, slumped to 131 all out in 25 overs, losing their last eight wickets for 10 runs.

Two of the debutants on that occasion, Imran Farhat and Faisal Iqbal, are likely to return to the side for Thursday's first Test in Colombo, along with Hasan Raza (remember him?) and Taufeeq Umar, who scored a century on debut in August 2001 (admittedly against Bangladesh). The bowling will miss the experience of Wasim, but the return of Mohammad Zahid, who devastated New Zealand with an 11-wicket debut in 1996-97, and the inclusion of the up-and-coming legspinner, Danish Kaneria, will prevent any complacency slipping into the Australian ranks.

Complacency, though, is unlikely to be particularly close to the surface, even for a band of inveterate winners such as the Aussies. Mark Waugh, for one, realises he is one poor series away from the chop, and his karma will not be enhanced by a return to Sri Lanka, the scene of his consecutive pairs in 1992-93, and origin of his nickname, "Audi".

Even big brother, Steve, who has cut a lonely figure in Colombo this week - a captain exiled from his ship - is less than secure. Ricky Ponting's one-day captaincy suffered a blip with that Champions Trophy humbling against Sri Lanka, but he is a whole decade younger than Waugh, and his place in both versions of the game is assured.

Moreover, the Australians are looking forward to this series like Maldivians awaiting global warming - they have already voiced their fears about concluding the series at Sharjah, and as Wednesday's defeat proved, they have still not got to grips with subcontinental conditions. The attitudes the two sides bring to the P Saravanamuttu Stadium will not exactly bridge the gap between the experience, but if ever Pakistan had an opportunity to be predictably unpredictable, it is now. Teams (from)
Pakistan 1 Imran Farhat, 2 Taufeeq Umar, 3 Imran Nasir, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq, 6 Faisal Iqbal, 7 Hasan Raza, 8 Abdul Razzaq, 9 Rashid Latif (wk), 10 Waqar Younis (capt), 11 Saqlain Mushtaq, 12 Danish Kaneria, 13 Shoaib Akhtar, 14 Mohammad Zahid, 15 Mohammad Sami, 16 Naved-ul-Hasan

Australia 1 Justin Langer, 2 Matthew Hayden, 3 Ricky Ponting, 4 Mark Waugh, 5 Steve Waugh (capt), 6 Damien Martyn, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Brett Lee, 9 Shane Warne, 10 Jason Gillespie, 11 Glenn McGrath, 12 Darren Lehmann, 13 Andy Bichel, 14 Nathan Hauritz

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