What we saw in this match was Australia repeating the mistakes they made on the tour of India 18 months ago. Their extremely aggressive approach has served them well in other parts of the world, but it doesn't quite work on the slower pitches of the sub-continent. After getting off to such a perfect start – 48 runs in six overs – all the openers needed to do was bat sensibly against the spinners. Had they done so, the pitch would not have become such a significant factor in this game. But indiscrete strokes and wickets falling in a heap – even Michael Bevan was out to an uncharacteristic swish– gave the spinners the confidence to bowl pretty much as they liked. The pitch would not have appeared as loaded in Sri Lanka's favour had Hayden and Gilchrist not gone for broke the moment the spinners came on.

With 163 to get, Sri Lanka's only worry was the new ball. Shane Warne was Australia's lone spin threat and it was quite unreasonable to expect him to run through the side single-handedly. It didn't help Australia either than Sanath Jayasuriya played to two of his natural strengths quite beautifully. The moment there was some width, he looked to play the square cut which comes so easily to him. His running between the wickets was also excellent and the pressure exerted by Jason Gillespie and Glenn McGrath was quickly eased. After the opening stand got going, it was Sri Lanka all the way, with Kumar Sangakkara making sure.

If we get similar conditions in the final, Sri Lanka will hold the edge, if only because they have far more spinning options. Aravinda de Silva and Kumar Dharmasena bowled excellent spells and they also have Sanath Jayasuriya and Russel Arnold to chip in, not to mention the incomparable Murali. I doubt that the Indian spin attack of Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh – given the way they have bowled here so far – will use the pitch as well.

If the track is dry and slow, the Lankan batsmen will look to mete out some punishment. On a good one-day pitch, with some seam movement and bounce – as we saw in the recent NatWest Series – India are a superior side, but in these conditions, Sri Lanka will take some beating.

Sanjay Manjrekar, the mainstay of India's batting in the late 1980s and early '90s, has provided an Expert View for all of India's matches in this tournament, as well as the semi-finals and final. He was talking to Dileep Premachandran.

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