That India are going into the semi-final against South Africa as favourites is a telling comment on the fortunes of these two teams in the last few months. India have won 11 of their last 13 completed matches – and their two defeats were in rain-reduced lotteries – while South Africa have won six and lost eight of their last 15 (one match, against Australia, ended in a tie). You'd think the two teams have swapped their win-loss tables. The key to India's recent run has been their new-found self-belief. Gone is the air of diffidence that used to characterise Indian teams of the past. Known to be notoriously poor chasers, seven of their last 11 wins have come batting second. And many of those victories were achieved without significant contributions from the top four, including Sourav Ganguly, Virender Sehwag and Sachin Tendulkar.

But on Sunday against England, Sehwag served a handy reminder – if ever one was needed – of his destructive capabilities, and Shaun Pollock will be praying that lightning doesn't strike twice. The ease with which India overhauled a target of 270 was stunning – the trusted trio of Rahul Dravid, Yuvraj Singh and Mohammad Kaif weren't even required to contribute. The only blot was VVS Laxman's run-out, but his experience should still win him a spot ahead of Dinesh Mongia and JP Yadav, the allrounder whose time will surely come.

While India's batting line-up looks impregnable, there are holes in the bowling and fielding which should encourage South Africa. Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra were inspired on Sunday, but seldom have they been charged up two matches in a row. The spin duo of Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh have conceded 192 runs in 39 overs in this tournament, taking just three wickets between them. And worryingly, the fifth bowler's quota of overs, which India have left to part-timers, has gone for more than six an over.

South Africa's run-up to the semi-final has been far less convincing – it needed a last-ball wide by Merv Dillon to enable them to put it across West Indies. Their win against Kenya was achieved easily enough, but there remain plenty of question-marks over their batting and bowling. With Gary Kirsten missing from the squad and Herschelle Gibbs in indifferent form – his century against Kenya broke a sequence of 11, 0, 1, 6 and 8 in his last five innings – the team has relied on the lower order to bail them out far too often. They average 226 runs in their last five matches – hardly the kind of target likely to test India.

The bowling attack seems one-dimensional too – Allan Donald is a lesser force than in his prime – but what props up the attack is their exceptional fielding. It's an area where India were sloppy against England – Dravid was quite an embarrassment behind the stumps, while there were plenty of fumbles and misfields. India can't expect such charity from Jonty Rhodes and co. – in fact, the presence of Ganguly and Laxman in the line-up will have them licking their lips at the prospect of plenty of run-out opportunities.

There was good news for South Africa when Donald announced he had recovered from the ankle injury which kept him out of the previous match, but two other bowlers were doubtful starters. Alan Dawson was suffering from a calf strain, while Nicky Boje hurt his finger while attempting a return catch against West Indies. Steve Elworthy and Robin Peterson arrived as replacements, but the team management decided to wait till Wednesday morning before ruling out the chances of Dawson and Boje.

The two teams met at the same stage in the previous edition of this tournament, in Nairobi. Then, Ganguly's 141 allowed underdogs India to romp home by 95 runs. Ganguly wouldn't mind a similar result this time round.

Probable teams
India 1 Sourav Ganguly (capt), 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 VVS Laxman, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Rahul Dravid (wk), 6 Yuvraj Singh, 7 Mohammad Kaif, 8 Anil Kumble, 9 Harbhajan Singh, 10 Zaheer Khan, 11 Ashish Nehra.

South Africa 1 Herschelle Gibbs, 2 Graeme Smith, 3 Jacques Kallis, 4 Boeta Dippenaar, 5 Jonty Rhodes, 6 Mark Boucher (wk), 7 Lance Klusener, 8 Shaun Pollock (capt), 9 Nicky Boje, 10 Alan Dawson, 11 Allan Donald.

S Rajesh is sub editor of Wisden.com in India.

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