The last time England had a series decider at The Oval, against New Zealand in 1999, it ended in tears, with them labelled the worst team in the world, and with Wisden Cricket Monthly's Simon Briggs being interviewed on a toilet on The Big Breakfast. Armitage Shanks may not have as big a part to play this time, but apart from that there are alamring parallels between now and three years ago if you are an England fan. Then, as now, it was a winner-takes-all clash to end a four-Test series, in which England had led by winning the first Test.

And then there was the most ominous precedent of all: Ronnie Irani. Then, as now, Irani had not played Test cricket for three years when England granted him an improbable recall for the Oval showdown. Irani made 1 and 9, took one wicket, and wound Dion Nash up to distraction, as England lost to New Zealand and surrendered the series 2-1. Nasser Hussain and Duncan Fletcher obviously took heed of this when they sent Irani back to Essex.

If England lose, they will not be labelled the worst team in the world, but it would still be extremely embarrassing. And it would be impossible to reconcile a team who, a few weeks ago, were being touted as serious contenders to bring back the Ashes with a team that lost at home to the worst travellers in world cricket. Injuries may have played a part, but alone do not qualify as an excuse: England won at Lord's with a largely second-string bowling attack, and were routed at Headingley with, apart from Darren Gough, all their big bowling guns in the side.

There are some good signs for England, though. Their record in series deciders has improved dramatically in recent times, with three wins in their last four. They won two in four months under Nasser Hussain on the subcontinent the winter before last - as many as they'd won anywhere in the previous 18 years. But England haven't done too well in winner-takes-all clashes at The Oval: the last time they won one was way back in 1955, against South Africa.

Then there's India, who have a reputation for blowing series deciders overseas, since they last won a series outside Asia, in 1986. But they've actually only has four such encounters in the last sixteen years - usually they are dead and buried long before the final curtain is drawn - two of them in the past year. Both times they were hammered, by Sri Lanka and West Indies, each time a potentially seminal moment turning into a depressing and comprehensive failure.

Some omens are good, though: the last time India won a series decider anywhere outside India was in 1971 … against England at The Oval. Will their Headingley victory represent another false dawn, or the beginning of the end of their overseas hoodoo?

Rob Smyth is on the staff of Wisden.com.

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