England's itinerary After all the hoo-ha, all the casualty bulletins, it's time to get down to business. If the paper-talk is to be believed, England begin their Ashes tour with the traditional opener at Lilac Hill tomorrow with genuine hopes of regaining the Ashes for the first time since 1989.

Logic suggests they have absolutely no chance. Australia have not lost a Test at home since England were last there four years ago, and they haven't lost a series at home since the classic against West Indies in 1992-93. England, by contrast, have just drawn at home to India, arguably the worst travellers in world cricket. It should not be a contest.

England can do themselves a favour by getting off to a decent start, as the opening match against an ACB Chairman's XI offers serious scope for derision. In 1994-95, the 45-year-old Dennis Lillee croaked in and took 2 for 32; four years later, England scraped home by one run despite smashing 297 off 50 overs. This time, Kim Hughes (age: 48) and David Hookes (47) will be looking to rub England's noses in it.

Two concepts are central to England's strategy for this tour: weight of runs and speed of bowling. England passed 500 five times this summer, yet their batting looks paradoxically vulnerable. In the absence of the wisdom and class of Graham Thorpe and Mark Ramprakash, the middle order is brittle - Alec Stewart (average v Australia: 29.09) and Andrew Flintoff (career average: 19.48) are a place too high at Nos 6 and 7, and John Crawley is about as revered in the Australian camp as Sourav Ganguly.

England are placing far too many eggs in the Trescothick/Vaughan basket. Given their scorching summer form, this is not unreasonable, but Trescothick had a modest series against the Aussies last year - three fifties in ten innings; an average of 32.1 - and Glenn McGrath has fried bigger fish than Michael Vaughan on his way to 400 wickets. Vaughan's performances last summer verged on the breathtaking, but McGrath usually gets what McGrath wants.

Then there's the pacemen, the bullish and slightly blithe assertion that England will fight fire with fire. This centres on an overweight Yorkshireman who hasn't played a Test for over a year, an injury-prone Lancastrian with a Test strike-rate nearing 100, and two wet-behind-the-ears quick bowlers with distinctly modest first-class records: Steve Harmison averages 31.26, and Simon Jones 37.26. And if Jones goes for 3.78 runs per over in first-class cricket, what will Ricky Ponting do to him on an Adelaide shirtfront?

Yes, history suggests that England can only win in Australia through raw pace, but there is a reason for that: Harold Larwood, Frank Tyson and John Snow were all great bowlers. The last time England tried to meet Australian fire head-on, Devon Malcolm got chickenpox, Martin McCague was thrashed all round Brisbane, and Joey Benjamin spent the whole tour carrying drinks. England lost 3-1 in that series: only foolish patriots would be disappointed with that result this time around.

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