Friday, May 10, 2002 Road crashes account for 3000 global deaths a day. A few more in Karachi will do little to affect this year's tally, but they have had a seismic effect on international cricket. Since September 11, the risk of a suicide bombing in South Asia has dramatically increased – with the consequence that Pakistan has become a virtual no-go zone for international cricketers.

On the face of it, the cynics have been proved right. This despicable suicide attack on a bus of foreign nationals has horrified Pakistan and been rightly condemned. Clearly New Zealand had no other option but to pull out of the second Test and, as this was the last game of the tour, they were sensible to fly home.

It is hard to predict what will now happen to Pakistan cricket. But it would be a mistake for the international community to turn its back on Pakistan, or even Sri Lanka. There are some incidents out of the control of all security measures, and consequently any guarantee of absolute security is a deceit. Instead it is more sensible for cricket boards to balance risks, because there will always be danger. Statistically, there is more chance of a cricket team coming to harm from a road crash (not one involving a suicide bomber) than from a suicide bombing, but that never stopped anyone from touring.

It is also worth considering whether or not cricketers are a realistic target. In South Asia, the answer has to be no. With a sport as intensely popular as cricket, harming the players would only produce a backlash against the organisation that spawned such an attack. I don't want to tempt fate, but cricketers in Asia are probably the safest people on the continent. With Al-Qaeda cells invisibly dispersed around the world, there are few places or travel arrangements, inside or outside Asia, that are no longer vulnerable.

Hence, Australia should plan ahead for their tour of Pakistan. The resurgence of Waqar Younis's team has made this a mouth-watering prospect. But there is a distinct chance that Australia will not tour, in which case Pakistan must prepare to accommodate them offshore. Where does this leave the gung-ho statements made by the Asian nations when they threatened to cancel tours to countries that shied away from Asia? In tatters.

The Karachi blast has made it virtually impossible to force any nation to tour the region. Nor will the Asian countries receive much sympathy from the ICC. Tauqir Zia and his team will have to win hearts and minds from now on – not a skill that they are known to have mastered. Either that or they should start building five-star facilities at every army barracks in Pakistan.

Kamran Abbasi, born in Lahore, brought up in Rotherham, is assistant editor of the British Medical Journal. More Kamran Abbasi
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