Muralitharan - match winner in 1998 Test in England Photo CricInfo

In the 14 months since the Colombo defeat which cost them their home series against England last year, Sri Lanka have carried virtually all before them. They have won all but one of the 11 Tests they have played since, and in so doing beaten India (2-1), Bangladesh (1-0), West Indies (3-0) and Zimbabwe (3-0), all at home, and for good measure defeated Pakistan at Lahore in the final of the Asian Test Championship. By contrast England have not won a rubber in the same period, drawing 1-1 with Pakistan, losing 4-1 to Australia and 1-0 to India, and then squaring their most recent series in New Zealand at a game apiece. Why, then, are England evens favourites to win the three-match series that starts at Lord's on May 16th, with Sri Lanka at 5/2?

Granted, Muttiah Muralitharan has been ruled out of the Lord's Test with the shoulder injury he sustained in on his 30th birthday in the Sharjah Cup final. Conceivably he may miss the entire series, which would undoubtedly upset the formbook given his influence when Sri Lanka won the one-off Test at The Oval on their last visit in 1998. Murali, in case you needed reminding, took 16 wickets for 220 in the match, the fifth-best analysis of all time. But beware of Sanath Jayasuriya's assertion that Murali's absence at Lord's, if not for the next two Tests, gives Sri Lanka the chance to prove that they are more than a one-man team.

Nor are they. Jayasuriya is averaging 41 in Tests, Mahela Jayawardene close on 50. Aravinda de Silva may be 36, but he too averages over 40 and has invaluable experience of English conditions. Kumar Sangakkara may not be the tidiest wicket-keeper in the world, but his average of 53 from 20 Tests is remarkable, and he has made runs abroad. Purely on averages, the top England batting is not as impressive. Graham Thorpe is the only man averaging over 40; Marcus Trescothick (37) and Nasser Hussain (36) come next. Of the other contracted batsmen, Mark Butcher and Michael Vaughan will be keen to finish the season in the higher rather than the lower 30s.

It is in the bowling department that England should have the edge, particularly in the early part of the summer when conditions are most likely to suit Messrs. Caddick and Hoggard. Their averages are strikingly similar, at around 28. But there's another man on 28 - Chaminda Vaas – who must surely relish the opportunity to play his first Test series in England in such conditions. Vaas took more wickets (16) in last year's home series against England than Muralitharan himself. Backed up by Nuwan Zoysa and the recovered Dilhara Fernando, he will surely be a key figure in the next couple of months.

Despite England's comparative lack of success over the past year, don't forget that the series win in Sri Lanka was their fourth in a row. Last summer's Ashes defeat apart, they've proved doughty opponents in every series they've played in over the past two years, and Murali or no Murali, don't expect this one to be any different.

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