Wellington was at its windy worst today, but the only thing likely to blow England off course during Thursday's second Test - bar another Nathan Astle tornado - is their own complacency. England's confidence has as much to do with victory at Christchurch - their first win in the first Test of an overseas series since 1991-92, when Christchurch was also the venue - as New Zealand's current injury crisis, which is reaching epidemic proportions.

Their attack has already been robbed of Chris Cairns, its best seamer, and it might yet be robbed of its best spinner as well. Daniel Vettori is struggling with an old back injury which flared up during the first Test, and if he misses out as well, New Zealand will be fielding one of their most inexperienced bowling line-ups for years. Between them, Daryl Tuffey, Ian Butler, Chris Drum and Chris Harris have taken 48 Test wickets, compared to the 322 claimed by Cairns and Vettori. An attack that lacked teeth at Christchurch could be about to get a lot more toothless.

England's only real injury scare is Mark Butcher, although Nasser Hussain's middle finger is still painful after he grassed a tricky chance at slip off Stephen Fleming. If Butcher doesn't make it, England have a couple of options. They could draft in Ian Bell and hope that jetlag doesn't get the better of him. They could give Usman Afzaal a chance to prove to Duncan Fletcher that he really is fit enough. Or they could promote Andrew Flintoff to No. 6 on the back of his maiden Test century on Friday and bring in Craig White at No. 7. Butcher, who cracked his right thumb when he caught Lou Vincent in the second innings, was a little tentative in the nets today, but remains hopeful. He owes England runs too, after making just 93 in five innings so far on tour.

But even if Butcher is fit, Hussain has said he might play an extra bowler anyway, depending on the pitch. That could mean a return for White - who was left out at Christchurch just two Tests after scoring 121 in India - and more disappointment for Mark Ramprakash, who batted beautifully for 31 on Wednesday before umpire de Silva wrongly gave him out caught behind.

It's too early to say what the pitch will be like, but today it resembled nothing more than a strip of rolled mud, and with bad weather forecast over the next few days, it would be a brave captain who decides to bat first on Thursday, particularly given the fact the team batting first has won only two of the last 22 Tests here.

If England win this game, it will be their third successive series victory in New Zealand, which, even against a weakened side, is not to be sniffed at: Australia have never managed even two series wins in a row here. And it would also be England's third series win out of four overseas, after last winter's triumphs in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. They will never get a better chance than this.

Teams
New Zealand (probable): 1 Mark Richardson, 2 Matthew Horne, 3 Lou Vincent, 4 Stephen Fleming (capt), 5 Nathan Astle, 6 Craig McMillan, 7 Chris Harris, 8 Adam Parore (wk), 9 Chris Drum, 10 Daryl Tuffey, 11 Ian Butler.

England (probable): 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Michael Vaughan, 3 Mark Butcher, 4 Nasser Hussain (capt), 5 Graham Thorpe, 6 Andrew Flintoff, 7 Craig White, 8 James Foster (wk), 9 Ashley Giles, 10 Andy Caddick, 11 Matthew Hoggard.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com. You can read his reports here throughout the tour.

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