Friday, June 28, 2002 The opening match of the NatWest series has set the pattern for the rest of the tournament. Runs will flow like a bout of Delhi belly, and it seems unlikely that any of these combatants have the wit to stem the tide. If you accept the theory that bowlers win matches, which I do, then this series promises to be an uninformative trailer for the blockbuster season of one-day cricket that lies further ahead. And the only country that can really benefit is England. India and Sri Lanka are well rehearsed in the arts of the short game — and all too familiar with their limitations — but each new tournament is a voyage of discovery for England.

There is also a theory that Test and one-day cricket as games are worlds apart, which I do not accept. Wicket-taking is vital in both versions — we know that nothing slows down the run-rate like the patter of spiked feet up and down the pavilion steps. Consider Pakistan's surprise defeat of Australia, fashioned by the raw speed of Shoaib Akhtar. While Shoaib regularly topped 150kph and took wickets, Brett Lee was instructed to sacrifice speed for accuracy. Is it better for Australia that Lee blasts 3 for 50 or hesitates to 0 for 30? This has to be the first serious misjudgement of Ricky Ponting's captaincy.

Sri Lanka, though, understand the value of a wicket-taker. Murali's presence would have made them my favourites for this tournament, but without their magician they will struggle to reach the final. Sanath Jayasuriya's team have been deeply wounded on this tour: they are lions who have fought like cubs. They have also learnt that to rely on one man's genius is a dangerous strategy.

India's failing is one of self-belief, a deficiency that arises from having the most lop-sided team in world cricket. As talented as India's batsmen are, their bowlers are ever capable of trundling them into the abyss. When no total is secure enough, it is your mental state that becomes unhinged. India's star batsmen will flicker brilliantly but their lollipop bowlers make a series triumph unlikely. This leaves the field open for England to dominate and develop. Despite Darren Gough's absence, England have the most incisive attack in the tournament, and their batsmen will flourish in a way that they were unable to against Australia and Pakistan last year.

This Nat West series is therefore a great opportunity for England, but India and Sri Lanka are stagnating without new bowlers. Whether any of them will emerge capable of wrestling the World Cup from Australia, Pakistan, South Africa, or even New Zealand, is unimaginable.

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Kamran Abbasi, born in Lahore, brought up in Rotherham, is deputy editor of the British Medical Journal.

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