After being humbled by Australia and Pakistan in last year's NatWest Series, when they lost six out of six, England would have relished the more modest opposition on offer in this year's contest. But somehow they've turned wine into water, and go into the tournament in a bit of a mess. In the last fortnight, England have lost to Wales, lost Andy Caddick - and possibly Darren Gough as well. Nobody seems to know what is going on with Gough at the moment, but two things are certain: he is nowhere near peak condition, and the will-he-won't-he saga is becoming a farce.

England lose a lot of things when Gough and Caddick aren't around: experience, proven quality, new-ball penetration - and 218 wickets. Indeed, in the last ten years, Gough has taken 170 wickets, more than twice the next-best Englishman (Mark Ealham, with 67).

Without Gough and Caddick, England's squad have just 97 wickets - less than half as many as Sanath Jayasuriya (216) alone. That's a shocking disparity. Alex Tudor, Matthew Hoggard and Andy Flintoff rose to the challenge magnificently in the third Test at Old Trafford, but it's different in one-day cricket, when the ball is invariably disappearing to all parts. And Hoggard's yo-yoing confidence took another battering when he went for 63 off 7 overs against Wales.

The manner of that Old Trafford Test defeat, allied to the return home of Muttiah Muralitharan, looks to have finished Sri Lanka for the summer. Though they are a proven one-day side - a win in the opening match tomorrow would put them second in the Wisden one-day table, above South Africa - much of their success rests on Murali, and their confidence is shot. Normally, it would be dangerous to write off Sri Lanka. They won a triangular tournament that included South Africa in England four years ago, and battered England 3-0 in the one-dayers after losing the Test series in 2000-01, but it is hard to see where their wickets are coming from this time.

With Sri Lanka and England struggling, India have a great chance to end their miserable run of nine consecutive defeats in one-day finals. Their batsmen made hay in England in the 1999 World Cup, and though India are a poor side overseas in Tests, the same does not really apply in one-day cricket. In the last year they have won more games (12) than they have lost (10) outside India.

Either way, there is an underwhelming atmosphere ahead of what should be the summer's main money-spinner. With Wimbledon set to take the back (and front) pages, this tournament could be a seriously damp squib, particularly if the warm-ups are anything to go by. India lost to Kent, Sri Lanka to Somerset, and England were trounced by Wales.

The main purpose of this tournament, of course, is to hone strategems for the World Cup. England won't be putting on their pyjamas too many times before the big kick-off after this tournament, and it's essential that they build on the promising displays in India and New Zealand last winter.

One problem England need to address is their penchant for middle-order collapses, which cost them at Kanpur and Christchurch in particular. It would help if they had less batsmen whose natural position is in the top four.

Nick Knight and Marcus Trescothick are established openers, Nasser Hussain's best one-day form for county and country has been as an opener, Stewart likes to bat in the top three, Ronnie Irani bats No. 5 for Essex. The finishers - Graham Thorpe, Paul Collingwood and Michael Vaughan - ideally need to be at the crease by around the 30th over to dictate the tempo. And some people would have Flintoff as a pinch-hitter. England need a Klusener, a Boucher or an Akram. Even a Marillier would do.

Rob Smyth is on the staff of Wisden.com.

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