The first Test between India and England at Lord's is already balanced on a knife-edge, even before it begins. England are missing many key players – Marcus Trescothick, Darren Gough, Andy Caddick – through injury, and the momentum after the NatWest Series is with India. But do they have the weapons to capitalise? One-day cricket is strongly oriented towards the batsmen, and India's daunting batting line-up won them the one-day tournament. But to win a Test match, 20 wickets have to be taken. India's pace bowlers are callow, and while they have talent, they are yet too mercurial and inconsistent, even when the conditions suit them. (Even in the NatWest final, England took more wickets.) And the Indian spinners have an abysmal record away from home.

Ashish Nehra is the most likely bowling matchwinner for India. He swings the ball both ways and will love the English conditions, but he lacks control and consistency. Cricket is a confidence game, and early breakthroughs will go a long way in making Nehra feel that he has it in him to run through sides. It's an ideal opportunity for one of India's young seamers to take up the gauntlet and establish themselves as India's pace-bowling spearhead. Nehra is the man most likely to step up.

In the absence of Gough, Caddick and Alex Tudor, England need someone to step up too. This is a big Test for Matthew Hoggard, whose ever-fragile confidence took a buffeting during the NatWest Series, and who had a nerve-ridden shocker in the first Lord's Test of the summer, against Sri Lanka. Hoggard needs to recapture the zealous discipline he showed in India, when he and Andrew Flintoff surprised everyone by muzzling India's middle order - Hoggard with a rigid off-stump line, Flintoff with an up-and-at-'em, near-90mph approach. Then, in a series that England were supposed to lose 3-0, it was a nice surprise. Now it's a necessity. It is hard to see where else the penetration will come from. Ashley Giles - who takes a wicket every 17 overs in Tests in England - will probably reacquaint Sachin Tendulkar with the joys of leg theory, and Craig White and Dominic Cork, one of whom will bat at No. 8, both of whom have struggled to make inroads at the top level in recent times.

Then there's Simon Jones. England can certainly rely on Jones for pace and passion, but not for precision, and not necessarily for penetration. If Jones fires blanks - and there are few middle orders in the world as capable of mashing bad bowling as India's - England will not be able to afford any more passengers.

The crucial question that India have to tackle is how many spinners to play. And, if they play only one, who to leave out. Anil Kumble averages 40.40 in overseas Tests, and while he can be an economical stock bowler, wicket-taking incisiveness cannot be expected from him. Harbhajan Singh probably has a better chance of playing a matchwinning role, but can also go for runs. The Duke ball should suit Harbhajan, as it is similar to the SG ball he uses in India, with its prominent seam affording better grip and more turn. It won't make so much of a difference to Kumble, who is more of a conditions bowler. It will be a tough call to make, and if India lose, could be labelled as the decision that lost India the match/series. That will be in hindsight, of course.

India's batting has a distinctly schizophrenic look about it – ridiculously wobbly at the top, very strong in the middle. John Wright and Sourav Ganguly have taken a bold move by giving out-of-form SS Das the boot, and asking Sehwag to open. If he clicks, he could take the match away from England, much as Michael Slater did in last year's Ashes. If he throws it away, as he is wont to, then once again, the middle order will emerge early. And the series could hinge on what happens next.

India (probable)
1 Wasim Jaffer, 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 Rahul Dravid, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Sourav Ganguly (capt), 6 VVS Laxman, 7 Ajay Ratra (wk), 8 Ajit Agarkar, 9 Anil Kumble, 10 Zaheer Khan, 11 Ashish Nehra.

Amit Varma is assistant editor of Wisden.com in India.

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