This is Sri Lanka's last opportunity to salvage a tour that's gone horribly wrong in the last month. After a bright start to the Test series at Lord's, they've slid down so far that even Sanath Jayasuriya's scintillating century in their previous match at Headingley was unable to lift them to a win. Now, nothingless than victories in each of their last three matches will earn them a place in the finals.

They must turn the corner in Saturday's clash against an Indian team that is playing at the top of its game, and then return on Sunday to achieve a feat they haven't managed even once on tour – beat England.

Before the tour started, Sri Lankan coach Dav Whatmore was at pains to explain that his side's bowling attack wasn't a one-man army, and that a crop of young seamers were waiting to prove their credentials in England. He couldn' t have been further off the mark. Nuwan Zoysa and Dilhara Fernando have seldom delivered on their unmistakable promise. Both have offered the batsmen generous doses of hit-me balls and have paid the price – Zoysa's 22.2 overs in this series have cost him 146 runs, while Fernando has gone for 137 from 24 overs. Chaminda Vaas has bagged a couple of wickets in each match, but he hasn't been the force he was expected to be in favourable conditions.

The bowlers' ineffectiveness has added to the pressure on an inconsistent batting line-up. Jayasuriya has been far more at home in the one-dayers after a lacklustre Test series, but apart from him and Mahela Jayawardene, the batsmen have been less than impressive. Jayasuriya's century in the rain-shortened match at Headingley gave Sri Lanka their best chance for a morale-boosting win. England's spirited run-chase scuttled those hopes though, and Whatmore's primary job now would be to lift up the sagging spirits in the Lankan dressing room.

Problems with morale would be the last thing on John Wright's mind. Sachin Tendulkar's first century against England was a wonderful gift to him a day before his 48th birthday, and it might have been even sweeter had rain not intervened. The Indian ride in this series hasn't been without a few hiccups, but each time they've faltered, they've found the men to bail them out.

In their first match against England, Rahul Dravid and Yuvraj Singh added 131 runs after India had slumped to 141 for 4 chasing England's 271. The next day, against Sri Lanka Mohammad Kaif put his hand up, and, along with Yuvraj, added 60 vital runs for the sixth-wicket after a mid-innings collapse. Then, at Chester-le-Street, Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar made light of three early wickets, adding 169 for the fourth and powering India to a huge total.

In each of these matches, the opponents have had chances – Dravid was dropped early in the first match, Kaif survived a confident lbw shout in the second, while both Tendulkar and Dravid escaped run-out chances in the third. But importantly, on each occasion, the Indians made those chances count, displaying a refreshing never-say-die attitude that has seldom been associated with an Indian line-up.

The experiments with the team composition seem to be paying off too. Dravid has improved dramatically behind the stumps, Tendulkar at No. 4 gives the middle-order wonderful depth and strength, while Yuvraj's explosiveness lower down the order means that India can expect, instead of just hope for, runs in the slog overs.

The bowling line-up is less than convincing though, and it's here that Sri Lanka will have to attack. They have the firepower to do that too – no one can discount Jayasuriya's ability to knock the ball around, while the support cast of Marvan Atapattu, Jayawardene, Russel Arnold and Romesh Kaluwitharana are all good enough to chip in with the runs.

The Indians managed to win both of their back-to-back fixtures last weekend. If Sri Lanka can do likewise – difficult as it sounds – they'll be back in the hunt. This NatWest Series has thus far been reduced to a two-horse race; it's time for the third horse to get up and start running.

Teams (Probable)
India 1 Sourav Ganguly (capt), 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 Dinesh Mongia, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Rahul Dravid (wk), 6 Yuvraj Singh 7 Mohammed Kaif, 8 Ajit Agarkar, 9 Anil Kumble, 10 Zaheer Khan, 11 Ashish Nehra.

Sri Lanka 1 Sanath Jayasuriya (capt), 2 Romesh Kaluwitharana (wk), 3 Marvan Atapattu, 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Russell Arnold, 6 Avishka Gunawardene, 7 Kumar Sangakkara, 8 Upul Chandana, 9 Chaminda Vaas, 10 Nuwan Zoysa, 11 Dilhara Fernando.

S Rajesh is sub-editor of Wisden.com in India.

© Wisden CricInfo Ltd