When New Zealand raced into a 2-0 lead at Wellington, the fifth game at Dunedin had all the makings of a damp squib. But in keeping with recent form New Zealand squandered a good start, England salvaged a terrible one, and suddenly it's the marketing man's dream: 2-2 with one to play. The damp squib has become the talk of the town. Dunedin may be known as the Edinburgh of the South, but tomorrow England are hoping to administer cricket's version of the Glasgow Kiss. Brinkmanship has quickly become another of Nasser Hussain's qualities as captain. In India, England fought like cornered lions to turn a 3-1 deficit into a 3-3 triumph. Now they are on the verge of transforming a potential Black Cap clean sweep into a backs-to-the-wall series win. At the start of England's winter programme of one-dayers, it looked as if par for the course would be four wins out of 11 (2-4 in India and 2-3 in New Zealand). Now six wins are on the cards. The force is with them, although the force has already changed hands twice in the series so far.

New Zealand, meanwhile, have been here before – and not too long ago either. After haring out of the blocks in the VB Series in Australia, they hobbled towards the finishing line only to pull up short before the tape. Stephen Fleming said after the loss at Auckland that his side are at their best when they're desperate, but this wasn't borne out in the VB finals against South Africa. Theirs have been a yo-yo few weeks. Three wins against Australia, then five defeats in a row, then two wins over England, then two more defeats. If they lose again tomorrow, the chokers tag could be hard to shake off.

Fleming, though, is sticking with the XII who have blown hot and cold so far. On what should be the best pitch of the series he may opt for the rough-and-ready tearaway Ian Butler in place of batsman Brendon McCullum, who has made 9 and 5 in his two matches and was lucky to get as many as that. The absence of McCullum would also allow Chris Cairns and Andre Adams to come in at Nos. 6 and 7 instead of a place lower, where their crackerjack risks are being wasted. Above all New Zealand need their specialist batting to start specialising fast. Since Wellington, New Zealand's top six have shared only two partnerships of more than 26, while England's have put on seven of at least 37.

England will be without Michael Vaughan, who briefly dislocated his right shoulder after failing to catch a Craig McMillan skyer at Auckland, and must now wait to see whether he'll be fit enough to play in the three-day game against Otago starting on Saturday. The obvious replacement is Owais Shah, who made 7 from 40 deliveries in the horror-show at Wellington and didn't face a ball at Napier. But there are whispers that Duncan Fletcher wants to give James Foster another game after being rested for the last three, and in that case Shah – or even Craig White – could miss out.

If England ice their cake tomorrow, it will be the first time they have won a one-day series from 2-0 down. And it will swing the psychological balance their way before the Test series begins on March 13. One local paper is already calling them the comeback kings of world cricket. But as republican demonstrators have shown during the Queen's short trip over here, royalty counts for little these days. A series full of twists and turns could yet have another in store.

Teams (probable)

New Zealand 1 Nathan Astle, 2 Chris Nevin (wk), 3 Stephen Fleming (capt), 4 Craig McMillan, 5 Lou Vincent, 6 Chris Cairns, 7 Chris Harris, 8 Andre Adams, 9 Daniel Vettori, 10 Daryl Tuffey, 11 Ian Butler.

England 1 Marcus Trescothick (wk), 2 Nick Knight, 3 Nasser Hussain (capt), 4 Graham Thorpe, 5 Owais Shah, 6 Paul Collingwood, 7 Andrew Flintoff, 8 Craig White, 9 Ashley Giles, 10 Darren Gough, 11 Matthew Hoggard.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com. His reports will appear here throughout England's tour of New Zealand.

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