Wednesday, February 20, 2002 One local reporter could barely believe it. "England without Gough is like Australia without McGrath." You know what he means. Ok, so Gough isn't in McGrath's class as a fast bowler, but in terms of what they bring to their teams – and how much they get the opposition in a flap – Dazzler and Pigeon are very much birds of a feather. With one big difference: Australia would never dream of sending home their No. 1 weapon before the start of a Test series.

After the first two one-day internationals in New Zealand, England were already a laughing-stock without inviting further ridicule by sticking to their pre-winter assertion that Gough would have to miss the Tests here because he opted out of the ones in India. "Minimise the risk – tie Gough's laces together," read a banner at Wellington. In that game, England did New Zealand's dirty work for them. Yes, there's a principle at stake, which argues that players can't pick and choose their tours. And, yes, the red tape is more of a tangled web: players were required to sign contracts for both tours, so clearly it would be quite improper to bend the rules …

But the question is this: do England want to win their third consecutive Test series in New Zealand, or don't they? With Gough, they stand a decent chance. Without him, it's almost indecent. "Darren decided that he wanted a rest," says David Graveney, England's chairman of selectors, "and that's up to him. He's an important guy but we have to stick to decisions that we have made." England are not just cutting off their nose to spite their face – they're hacking off both ears too.

Just look at the stats. In the first five matches in New Zealand – including the two warm-ups at Hamilton – Gough took 13 wickets at an average of less than 15. His five seam-bowling team-mates managed 23 between them at 32. Gough struck once every 22 balls; his team-mates once every 37. Gough went for about four an over; his team-mates for about five. At Christchurch, Gough threatened to win the game singlehandedly with a world-class spell of 4 for 8 in 11 balls; his team-mates couldn't even hang on to his coat-tails. By sending home Gough, England are losing a sixth of their seaming strike-force, but well over a third of its effectiveness. And with Andy Caddick in such lacklustre form, they simply can't afford to be principled.

Morale will suffer too. Despite his travails at Yorkshire, Gough keeps England smiling. When another top-edge from Nathan Astle at Christchurch fell into another empty space, Gough grinned, playfully grabbed the visor of Astle's helmet and shook it. It was a lighthearted gesture which no-one else on either side would have had the chutzpah to carry off. The series needs him as much as England.

Not everyone is convinced Gough will go home – some of the English press corps are taking bets with each other – but barring what Graveney calls "extreme circumstances", England will begin the Test series without their best bowler. Principles can be honourable, but they can also be pig-headed.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com. You can read his reports here throughout the tour.

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