Sunday, February 10, 2002 New Zealand has often been likened to England 20 years ago, but there is nothing remotely old-fashioned about their cricket team. The Cricket Academy at the University of Lincoln, where the recent Under-19 World Cup was held, boasts some of the best facilities in the world, and has contributed to the massive improvement in New Zealand's cricket.

Although they faded at the end of the VB Series, New Zealand can take great confidence from their Australian tour. By the end it was clear that three of the top one-day sides had been on show, and New Zealand proved that they were considerably more than makeweights. Defeat was no disgrace - South Africa may have a mental hang-up when it comes to playing Australia, but I still believe they are the best side in one-day cricket.

England's task needs to be viewed in this context. Their performances in India were notable for their tenacity, and they are learning the needs and disciplines of the one-day game. Now that they have captured the winning formula, they need to adapt it to the new conditions. Small grounds and excellent pitches mean that 250 will be a minimum total.

Five men will be pivotal to New Zealand's hopes in the one-day series, and England must target them from the start.

As the senior opening batsman, Nathan Astle will look to get the innings off to a flyer. He's fond of the cut and likes to hit over the top of extra cover and straight down the ground. But he's fallible on the hook, and can play with half a bat outside off stump early on. If Matthew Hoggard, Andy Caddick and Darren Gough can get the ball to swing away early on, and get the length right, they will trouble him.

I fancy Caddick's extra bounce will get the measure of Craig McMillan. His great weakness is impatience - if he gets bogged down he tends to get himself out, often by trying to hook his way out of a corner. If the ball gets big on him, he's in trouble.

Stephen Fleming can use the time he spent at Middlesex to his advantage, but Ashley Giles could cause him some problems. Fleming does tend to get out to spinners more than most good players - against the slower bowlers his bottom hand can sometimes take over, which lifts the ball off the ground. If he then hits the fielder - which he often does - he can wave goodbye.

Chris Cairns is a destructive force. At Brisbane recently he played one of the best one-day innings I've ever seen, and England cannot allow him to spend prolonged periods at the crease. Gough will be the man for this particular job, using his extra pace to force Cairns onto the back foot. Back-of-a-length bowling is what's needed, as the grounds in New Zealand are too small to contain him if he's allowed to drive off the front foot.

Chris Harris is an awkward player who needs to be bowled at very precisely. He likes to hit over and through extra cover, so you cannot give him room. And he also hits the ball deceptively hard. Watch his back foot - it tends to edge back outside leg every time he's about to let rip.

Those five are New Zealand's established matchwinners, but another one has burst onto the scene in the last few months. Shane Bond appears to be a pretty quick bowler by anyone's standards, and his extra pace has turned the game on more than one occasion. This is a new development for New Zealand. In the past their strategy centred on the slower bowlers, with the wicketkeeper standing up and the pace taken off the ball. Their biggest problem at the moment is keeping those pacemen fit. Cairns and Dion Nash are both in the wars, and they lack the strength in depth to cover for them.

It will be an intriguing series, and a demanding one. England have been impressive so far in their build-up to the World Cup, and victory in New Zealand would give them huge confidence ahead of 2003. For the New Zealanders it is vital that they recover from their disappointments in the VB Series, but three heavy defeats on the bounce, and injuries to key players may hamper them.

I back England - on a roll from their India tour - to shade it.

Bob Woolmer is Warwickshire's coach and ICC's high-performance manager. He was coach of South Africa from 1994 to 1999.

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