This wasn't what the marketing men had in mind at all. The Sydney Cricket Ground is underwater, the local papers are awash with unwanted tickets, and a ratings disaster in the making has forced the ACB to reschedule Sunday's game for a 10am start at the behest of a local television station. But the show must go on, and on Friday afternoon, at a damp and soggy SCG, the last rites of the VB Series may or may not be played out. Australia's summer jamboree had already been well and truly rained upon - in controversial circumstances at Perth - even before this latest cloudburst. But for South Africa and New Zealand, the prospects of a party atmosphere are as empty as the marquee that straddles the SCG wicket.

Weather permitting, South Africa start the match as overwhelming favourites. They have had the wood on New Zealand, as Ian Healy put it, throughout this series, and have won 13 of the last 14 completed one-dayers between the sides. Shaun Pollock and Jacques Kallis have spluttered into form, Lance Klusener and Jonty Rhodes are showing glimpses of their World Cup heroics, and Makhaya Ntini came of age in the first final. And yet, when they rolled into Perth last November, South Africa genuinely believed themselves to be Australia's equals. Six hammerings and a solitary one-day victory were not what their egos had in mind. Win or no win, they will be a chastened side.

In that very same week in Western Australia, New Zealand were within an umpiring decision of a major Test upset. But the only side who stood up to the Aussies all season are now beset by injury and burn-out. "We're desperate to win," says Stephen Fleming, and well he might. New Zealand didn't arrive in Australia with inflated ambitions, but as a young and eager side, ready to revel in their role as underdogs. They have, to a man, come on in leaps and bounds, and like England in India, deserve some tangible reward for their efforts.

Yet, with Chris Cairns in the wars and Dion Nash on the casualty list, the balance of the side is badly awry. James Franklin proved his worth in the Tests and could revel in the Sydney puddles if given his chance, but he is no great shakes with the bat, and it will take a superhuman effort for the Kiwis to get back into the reckoning. New Zealand would love to ice their cake, but South Africa will be determined to salvage some pride. Few would bet against them doing so.

New Zealand (probable) 1 Nathan Astle, 2 Lou Vincent, 3 Stephen Fleming (capt), 4 Craig McMillan, 5 Chris Cairns, 6 Chris Harris, 7 Adam Parore (wk), 8 Andre Adams, 9 Daniel Vettori, 10 Shane Bond, 11 James Franklin.

South Africa (probable) 1 Gary Kirsten, 2 Herschelle Gibbs, 3 Jacques Kallis, 4 Boeta Dippenaar, 5 Jonty Rhodes, 6 Mark Boucher (wk), 7 Lance Klusener, 8 Shaun Pollock (capt), 9 Nicky Boje, 10 Makhaya Ntini, 11 Allan Donald.

Andrew Miller is on the staff of Wisden.com.

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