Two wins over Sri Lanka, and suddenly everything seems clear. A fortnight ago anyone with a slower ball might have fancied their chances of making England's World Cup squad, but now there are only a few decisions to make before the final XV are revealed. Nasser Hussain says he has most of the names inked in – the squad has to be announced by New Year's Eve - so the decisions left are these: Alec Stewart or Chris Read, Matthew Hoggard or James Kirtley, and two of Andrew Flintoff, Ronnie Irani and Adam Hollioake.

The rest pick themselves, though the probable make-up of the party leaves England a smidgen light on batsmen: just Nasser Hussain, Nick Knight, Marcus Trescothick, Michael Vaughan and Paul Collingwood before the allrounders kick in. It's a familiar English failing in one-day internationals - a short tail has always been regarded as a bit of an affront to their masculinity.

In ODI history, the first and last half-centuries by tailenders (Nos 8-11) came from Englishmen: Alan Knott in 1972 and Craig White last week, both against Australia, White's in a match that had long since died as a contest. But inbetween there were no fewer than 70 fifties from tailenders around the world – and not one came from an Englishman. It's a statistic that doesn't lie. And it gets worse: England are responsible for only four of the 126 fifties by No.7s in one-dayers.

One man who might bridle at being called a tailender, but who has had his moments at No. 8 in recent months, is Alec Stewart. There has been talk that Stewart might be under pressure after some iffy glovework, and three single-figures out of four, in the VB Series, but it would be lunacy to make a change at this late stage. If Read or James Foster were being groomed for the World Cup, they needed to be in the one-day side a year ago (Foster was, but that's another story). For all Read's promise, the Gaffer is the man you would want walking out for Queen and country with 60 needed off 60 balls in a semi-final.

As for the final seam-bowling place – Hussain's relatively gushing comments make it a safe bet that James Anderson and Steve Harmison are in – Hoggard is the likeliest candidate. Kirtley has sorted his action out, but he might have to wait a little longer to remodel an ODI record that, since a promising start in Zimbabwe last winter, shows four wickets at an average of 82, with 52 overs disappearing for 6.27 a time. It doesn't take Colonel Naushad Ali to point out the undesirable kink in those figures.

England have to trust that Hoggard's confidence will have improved by mid-February (a couple of VB games against Sri Lanka should do the trick), because he has extra class to go with his experience of South African conditions - with Free State between 1998 and 2000 - something which should not be underestimated.

Then are the allrounders, the cause celebres of England's one-day team. There's the Lancastrian who can't get fit for all the hours he has spent in the gym, the other Lancastrian who does keep-fit with the Australian crowd but is struggling to exercise the middle of his bat or the edge of his opponents'. Yet despite this, Flintoff and Irani will probably squeeze Hollioake out of the way when the last two positions are filled.

The relaxed replacement rules (all sides are allowed to select one injured player and substitute him if he breaks down) mean England will surely gamble on Flintoff, while for all Irani's travails – he has looked out of his depth away from his manor (in ODIs overseas he has made 62 runs in 12 innings and taken only eight wickets, four of them in one match against Zimbabwe) - he has the trust of Hussain. Despite all that swash and buckle, the same cannot be said of Hollioake, who, you suspect, is not rated by the England management. He has never played under Hussain or Duncan Fletcher, and if he was a serious World Cup prospect, they should have had a look at him in the opening to the VB Series.

Either way, England will be rocking up in Southern Africa with a pretty green party, and they are leaving some big experience behind: Graeme Hick (their second-highest runscorer in the last three World Cups), Mark Ealham and Alan Mullally (who both took ten wickets at less than 20 in 1999) were all integral parts of their one-day team only a couple of winters ago.

After the shambles of 1999, England promised they would never make such a dog's dinner of a World Cup campaign again. But they got lost somewhere along the way: surely the grand plan didn't involve giving one-day debuts to two young fast bowlers just two months before the tournament? Christmas wouldn't be Christmas without some panic acquisitions, however, and England's selectors have caught the mood just in time.

Probable squad
Nasser Hussain (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Nick Knight, Michael Vaughan, Paul Collingwood, Alec Stewart (wk), Andrew Flintoff, Ian Blackwell, Andrew Caddick, James Anderson, Steve Harmison, Ronnie Irani or Adam Hollioake, Craig White, Ashley Giles, Matthew Hoggard.

Wisden.com writers' squads Steven Lynch (Editor) Nasser Hussain (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Nick Knight, Michael Vaughan, Graeme Hick, Ian Blackwell, Alec Stewart (wk), Craig White, Andrew Flintoff or Adam Hollioake, Ronnie Irani, Ashley Giles, Steve Harmison, Matthew Hoggard, Jeremy Snape or Gareth Batty, Andrew Caddick.

Martin Williamson (Managing Editor) Nasser Hussain (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Nick Knight, Michael Vaughan, Graeme Hick, Paul Collingwood, Alec Stewart (wk), Andrew Flintoff , Adam Hollioake, Ian Blackwell, Craig White, Andrew Caddick, Ashley Giles, James Anderson, John Crawley.

Rob Smyth (Assistant Editor) Nasser Hussain (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Nick Knight, Michael Vaughan, Graeme Hick, Paul Collingwood, Andrew Flintoff, Alec Stewart (wk), Craig White, Ashley Giles, Andrew Caddick, Adam Hollioake, Alan Mullally, Mark Ealham, Owais Shah.

Andrew Miller (Deputy Managing Editor) Nasser Hussain (capt), Marcus Trescothick, Nick Knight, Michael Vaughan, Graeme Hick, Paul Collingwood, Alec Stewart (wk), Andrew Flintoff or Adam Hollioake, Ian Blackwell, Andrew Caddick, Matthew Hoggard, Jeremy Snape, Alan Mullally, Mark Ealham, James Kirtley.

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