Like a darkening sky before a particularly violent storm, England have known what awaits them this winter long before the heavens actually opened. But, hard as they have tried to baton down the hatches, the campaign, with its twin peaks of the Ashes and the World Cup, is already in some peril … and the fun has not yet started. It is richly ironic that England's success at Lord's and their moral victory at Trent Bridge was achieved in spite of one of the worst injury crises they have known in recent times. By the second Test, England had been shorn of an entire first-choice seam attack - Darren Gough, Andrew Caddick, Alex Tudor and Simon Jones - as well as their most prolific opening batsman, Marcus Trescothick, and their most proven middle-order lynchpin, Graham Thorpe.

By Headingley, however, that situation may have deteriorated further. John Crawley - a revelation since his recall - may be out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, while Andrew Flintoff, who has played in every single one of England's 11 Tests and 23 one-day games since the tour to Zimbabwe last October, is struggling with a groin injury and is in urgent need of a rest.

Throw into the equation the dodgy knees and ribs of Dominic Cork and Craig White, and England face lining up for the third Test with an attack of Matthew Hoggard, Steve Harmison, Ashley Giles (hardly an automatic choice for Headingley) and AN Other, probably Caddick, if he comes through Somerset's match at Southampton unscathed, but quite possibly a third rookie in three Tests. After bad days in the field, Hussain is fond of falling back on the excuse that his attack is "inexperienced", but this is getting ridiculous.

The good news is that England's pool of centrally-contracted players is to be increased from 12 to 20 - virtually two entire teams. The bad news is that two entire teams seems to be what England need to remain competitive throughout the winter, and still have enough in the tank to take on Zimbabwe and South Africa next summer. After that, there follows a trip to Sri Lanka in November, an inaugural series against Bangladesh in December, a full series against West Indies in February 2004, followed in May by a considerable grudge match against New Zealand, who beat them in 1999, and a rematch against the West Indians in July. The treadmill is unceasing, and it is little wonder that the fast bowlers in particular are falling off it at an unhealthy rate.

The tragedy for England is that, for the first time in a generation, they have assembled a first eleven that look like they might be capable of retrieving the Ashes. They have the captain in Hussain, the opening batsmen in Trescothick and Michael Vaughan, the middle-order (if Thorpe recovers his composure), the allrounders in Alec Stewart and Flintoff, and a battery of pacemen, from Caddick to Tudor to Jones to Hoggard - and Gough, astonishingly, might not even get a look-in. But, with two more Tests this summer, and the grind of the ICC Champions Trophy to follow, it will be a miracle if the entire side is fit come November 7 and the first morning of the Brisbane Test.

Last winter, New Zealand proved how vulnerable Australia can be when faced with an opposition who scrap for every morsel of every session. And many of this side, not least Hussain himself, know it for themselves: in 1997, Hussain's double-century at Edgbaston had the world champions pinned on the ropes by the end of round one. He has since been acclaimed as England's greatest captain since Brearley, and their most ruthless strategist since Jardine. If he goes to Australia, and retrieves the Ashes, his place in the pantheon will be secure … and he knows it.

With that sort of opportunity awaiting them, England's only viable option is to follow the trail of their footballing counterparts and rely on a squad rotation system. It might offend the purists if England were to field under-strength sides for less auspicious tournaments, or even, heaven forbid, a Test match, but the way the game is devouring its players at the moment, they have actually been doing so for months. No-one could have imagined England could break decade-long scoring records without Thorpe in the side, or take 78 wickets in four Tests without Gough and Caddick. But they have and they can, and given the spirit in the squad at the moment, they will continue to do so. Australia, though, will not be conquered with anything less than the best the country has to offer - and for the sake of English cricket, that has to be the ultimate priority.

Andrew Miller is editorial assistant of Wisden.com

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