England and India are both used to muddled selection processes, but this time the conundrums are more puzzling than ever. Even though England have been shorn of four of their frontline pace bowlers and two of their finest batsmen, it is India who have all the problems. Ordinarily, the loss of Darren Gough, Andrew Caddick, Simon Jones, Alex Tudor, Marcus Trescothick and Graham Thorpe would be a cause for national mourning. Indeed, when England were hit by a similar injury crisis this time last year, all hope of regaining the Ashes flew straight out of the window. But somehow, in the space of 12 months, that logic has been turned completely on its head: suddenly, it is the strength in depth of the national squad, rather than its one-dimensional fragility, that is being shouted from the rooftops.

Three home victories in a row, something England haven't managed in one summer since Beefy's glory days of 1981, have helped this feeling of disconcerting optimism, but English cricket and cockiness are uneasy bedfellows, and if ever the time was ripe for a smashing by Sachin, it is now.

Given the negative reviews he has been receiving all week, Tendulkar will be certainly be in the mood to deliver the goods, as he did on his last visit to Trent Bridge (177 in 1996). But India's overseas form is so dismal that it will take something superhuman for them to square the series, and it could be that their best chance of victory has already been lost.

By smacking a century as the last rites were being administered at Lord's, Ajit Agarkar has given the Indian selectors their most chronic headache since the morning after the NatWest Series triumph. With Harbhajan Singh a certain starter, it is Agarkar v Anil Kumble, 325 wickets but largely impotent overseas, for the final place.

It would be harsh on Agarkar if he were dropped, but he did fail spectacularly in his day job at Lord's, where he bowled like a drain. You get the impression the Indian selectors would be happiest sitting on the fence, which they may be able to do if Kumble's calf injury keeps him out.

Fortune, though, is ever so fickle. If an Indian tailender scoring a century is deemed a curse, then who on earth would have thought that the loss of Thorpe could be a blessing in disguise? But it is, because ut IT provides a priceless, and overdue, opportunity for a young batsman to get some action.

John Crawley has rewarded the faith with some fine displays, but it would have been a travesty if one of the Academy boys hadn't broken into the big time this summer. And now England have plumped for the plump one. Barring injury, Robert Key should have a guaranteed run of three Tests to prove his mettle ahead of the Ashes, and not only will he be in a his natural position - a bit of a luxury for English batting debutants - but he allows Mark Butcher to drop back to No. 3. Everything in its right place.

Jones the Ball, of course, has already been blooded, and showed an encouraging lust for the centre stage. His injury gives England the chance to blood a different type of bowler; Steve Harmison, all bounce for Jones's skid, but every bit as quick. The Ashes have rarely been retrieved without a wild and woolly spearhead - from Larwood, to Tyson, to Snow. So, regardless of his homesickness or his injury problems, the selection of Steve Harmison is to be applauded. One seriously quick bowler is an asset, two seriously quick bowlers vying for one place is even more so.

But this talk of the Ashes - it's all rather premature. England have shown an impressive focus in recent times, never looking beyond the next session of a match, let alone the next series. But the Australians still have a strange effect on the English psyche. The last time they let their guard slip - at Old Trafford against Pakistan in 2001 - the Australians were looking on with amusement. England must beware history repeating itself.

Teams
England (probable): 1 Michael Vaughan, 2 Robert Key, 3 Mark Butcher, 4 Nasser Hussain (capt), 5 John Crawley, 6 Alec Stewart (wk), 7 Andrew Flintoff, 8 Craig White, 9 Ashley Giles, 10 Steve Harmison, 11 Matthew Hoggard.

India (probable): 1 Wasim Jaffer, 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 Rahul Dravid, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Sourav Gasnguly (capt), 6 VVS Laxman, 7 Ajay Ratra (wk), 8 Ajit Agarkar, 9 Harbhajan Singh, 10 Zaheer Khan, 11 Ashish Nehra.

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