Wednesday, October 31, 2001 Sri Lanka have been the team to watch so far but I fancy Pakistan tolift the trophy in Sharjah. Sanath Jayasuriya's players have won their games convincingly and their most impressive performance was against Pakistan on Saturday. That aside, Sri Lanka's weakness is that their bowling relies too heavily on Murali, and this is where Pakistan will have the upper hand in the final.

Wasim and Waqar remain a formidable duo, and Shoaib Akhtar is beginning to remind us what a valuable player he is. The speed is there, he just needs to find his rhythm and some luck. He is the kind of bowler who becomes even more destructive once he gets the upper hand over a batting line-up. He is a matchwinner and the Pakistan Cricket Board knows it. The PCB has been heavily criticised for spending too much to help him through his injuries and bans but I believe they made the right decision. The injuries have not been minor and it is understandable that he has taken a while to recover fully. The PCB has rightly seen him as an investment, but he has to start repaying them.

Pakistan's bowlers will also be helped by the new rule that allows one bouncer per over. Batsmen had become carefree during the first 15 overs with few outfielders to catch their misplaced slogs and no fear of being bounced. The one-bouncer rule is fairer for bowlers who have had to sit back and watch their armoury destroyed in recent years. Of course, Sri Lanka's bowlers will benefit too but Dilhara Fernando and Chaminda Vaas are not in the same league as Pakistan's attack.

Where Sri Lanka have got it right, though, is in the way they move their best batsmen up the order. Lots of people have said it but in one-day cricket you have to give your leading batsmen as much time to score their runs as possible. They should not be shoved down the order in the hope that a lesser player might play out of his skin. India are the most obvious example with Ganguly and Tendulkar kicking off every innings.

Unfortunately Pakistan are doing the opposite. Saeed Anwar has dropped to No. 3 when he is a natural opener, particularly in the one-day game where he can use the fielding restrictions to devastating effect. His record is also better opening than coming in lower. If Pakistan want to bring on a young player the natural slot to groom him would be at No. 5 or 6. Shuffling the order in this way is unsettling and stops players from familiarising themselves with their role.

It might be that Saeed has filled the hole left in Pakistan's middle order by Inzamam's two-match ban. I hope so. I wouldn't like to see his drop down the order become a long-term strategy.

Javed Miandad, Pakistan's highest-scoring batsman and latterly their coach, was talking to Kamran Abbasi. His column appears at Wisden.com every Wednesday.

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