Monday, October 29, 2001 I'm not calling my agent at Ladbrokes yet, but this Indian team could upset the odds in the Test series that starts this Saturday. South Africa are still the favourites, but the Test matches will be more keenly fought than most imagine, and with a little luck India might even win one.

This is a theory that runs against conventional wisdom. One-day cricket is presumed to be the great equaliser: the sheer monotony of one-day cricket is supposed to bridge the gap between a truly outstanding team and one that is barely competent.

India have a couple of great players and a few good ones, but have been a poor team. South Africa have no geniuses but have plenty of good players and are a great side. Normally, they would be expected to wallop India on the pacy and bouncy South African pitches. But cricket wouldn't be such a fascinating game if it could be broken down into simple arithmetic.

India won't be a force in one-day cricket until they sort out the basics. In terms of physical fitness, ground fielding, running between the wickets and line-and-length bowling, India are a decade behind South Africa and Australia. But they still have a chance in the Test series because the longer game allows them to hide their deficiencies. More importantly, Test cricket does not place restrictions on individual performance; it allows great players to impose themselves in a more emphatic and decisive manner.

India needed only Harbhajan Singh and VVS Laxman to humble Australia earlier this year, and in this Indian team there are five players who could make the difference: Sachin Tendulkar, Laxman, Harbhajan, Anil Kumble and Rahul Dravid.

Little needs to be said about Tendulkar and Dravid. But it's Laxman the South Africans must fear the most. There is an unpredictability about his batting that can be unsettling for both his own team and the opponents. No-one wastes his wicket as criminally, yet no-one, Tendulkar included, can alter the course of a match as dramatically.

When Laxman is on song, everything becomes possible, every length becomes driveable, and gaps appear from nowhere. India have to learn to accept his inconsistency, but it is reasonable to expect two good knocks from him.

Harbhajan is still learning how to deal with the unreal expectations of more than a billion people. By the standards he set against the Australians, he was a failure against Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka. But he already looks a better bowler in South Africa, and no-one has yet picked his ball that goes away. With a few close-in fielders, he will always be a threat.

Unlike in the past, Kumble will be expected to play a defensive role. But it suits him well. He is accurate, enjoys bowling long spells and his shoulder looks no worse for the surgery. Bottling up one end should be bread and butter for him. If these five can do the job expected of them, India can pull off a surprise.

And don't count Sourav Ganguly out yet.

The manner in which he has reinvented himself as a one-day batsman has been the biggest revelation of the tour so far. That he was India's leading runscorer in the one-day series will count for little in the Tests, but Ganguly has shown a refreshing ability to adapt and reorganise his skills to suit the conditions. His technique against the short-pitched ball still has a few holes, but it will not be a surprise if he has devised a method to overcome it.

Sambit Bal is editor of Wisden.com India.

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