One down, two to go. In simple mathematical terms, India still have a chance to square the series, and indeed win it. But the real world does not consist of simple mathematical equations, and Sourav Ganguly would recognise he has an uphill task on hand when he takes the field at St George's Park tomorrow. The touring Indians have been dogged as much by ill luck as by poor application. A freak groin infection ruled Harbhajan Singh out of the first match at Bloemfontein, and along with him went India's chances of winning. Then, a combination of inclement weather and poor drying facilities at East London deprived them of vital practice before the second Test. Their only other practice match, at Chatsworth, had been washed out too. In between, a shocking exhibition of batting cost them the first Test inside four days.

With no cricket since that disastrous defeat nine days ago, and many questions unanswered, India go into this match as firm underdogs.

Indian miseries begin at the top of the order, where a partner for SS Das has been harder to find than a seat in Mumbai's suburban trains. Rahul Dravid opened at Bloemfontein, apparently with some reluctance, but after two failures there, he made it clear that he didn't want the experiment repeated.

The naming game started thereafter, with VVS Laxman, Deep Dasgupta and Sourav Ganguly all bandied about in the space of two days. Laxman has since voiced his unwillingness to do the job, and the toss-up is now between Ganguly and Dasgupta.

Ganguly has struggled against the short delivery, and looks less likely to survive the new-ball burst from Shaun Pollock and Nantie Hayward. But with Dravid - the batsman best-equipped technically to tackle the moving ball - shying away from the challenge, Ganguly is left with few options.

There won't be many expectations from him at the top of the order, but if he bats with the same aggression he showed in the one-day matches, he just might regain his Test form and win a few points for leading from the front. The other option would be to push Dasgupta up the order and hope he survives the ordeal.

Either way, the odds for a substantial opening partnership don't look too great - in the last seven Tests at Port Elizabeth, the openers have on average put together less than 25, and 15 times out of 28, the first wicket has fallen before 10.

Dravid at No. 5 will strengthen the middle order, but as they showed at Bloemfontein, the Indians have a remarkable ability to self-destruct at the slightest hint of pressure. Andy Blignaut and Heath Streak embarrassed India just four Tests ago at Harare - a collapse which Ganguly shrugged off as half an hour of poor cricket. But, as the Bloemfontein debacle demonstrated, the malaise goes much deeper.

The problems with the opening combination extend to their bowlers too. Javagal Srinath emerged from the first Test with some credit, but both Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra looked rusty. With no match play since then, the think-tank might be tempted to play Ajit Agarkar as the second seamer.

Harbhajan is a certainty, but conflicting voices have been heard about the inclusion of Anil Kumble. Coach John Wright seemed to favour playing two spinners, while Ganguly preferred three seamers, once again demonstrating the confusion in the Indian ranks on the eve of the Test. But most Indian hopes would rest on Harbhajan to provide the incisive edge that was missing in the first Test.

South Africa have far fewer worries. All their top-order batsmen, save Boeta Dippenaar, made runs at Bloemfontein. Dippenaar got a beauty from Javagal Srinath and it would be cruel to drop him for just one failure.

The bowling cupboard was less well-stocked though. Pollock was exceptional in both innings, but the rest of the attack looked ordinary. A more disciplined batting side would have made them struggle on the flat batting pitch at Goodyear Park, but India's generosity ensured that they took 20 wickets in fairly quick time.

The wicket and the conditions at St George's Park will be more bowler-friendly, and Hayward and Ntini may not be as innocuous as they did in the first Test.

South Africa have a good record at Port Elizabeth - four wins and one loss in seven Tests. Their only defeat came against Australia, who reached a fourth-innings target of 270 thanks to a superb 116 by Mark Waugh.

The Indian record here is dismal. They lost by nine wickets in the 1992-93 series, when Kapil Dev's magnificent 129 in the second innings was offset by Allan Donald's match haul of 12 for 139. They've lost all three one-day matches here as well - most recently, to Kenya in the tri-series earlier this season.

The odds seem stacked against India, and they will be happy to come out of this one with a draw.

Probable teams India
1 Shiv Sunder Das, 2 Deep Dasgupta (wk), 3 VVS Laxman, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Rahul Dravid, 6 Sourav Ganguly (capt), 7 Virender Sehwag, 8 Harbhajan Singh, 9 Anil Kumble, 10 Ajit Agarkar, 11 Javagal Srinath South Africa
1 Gary Kirsten, 2 Herschelle Gibbs, 3 Jacques Kallis, 4 Boeta Dippenaar, 5 Neil McKenzie, 6 Lance Klusener, 7 Shaun Pollock (capt), 8 Mark Boucher (wk), 9 Nicky Boje, 10 Nantie Hayward, 11 Makhaya Ntini

S Rajesh is a sub-editor at Wisden.com India.

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