Tomorrow morning at 10am local time in Brisbane, a rumbling juggernaut confronts a punctured unicycle. Australia, who have won 20 of their last 23 Tests, begin a three-Test series with New Zealand, whose last series win was in September 2001 – in Zimbabwe. Mismatch hardly does it justice. The Aussies think as much. You know this because they've spent the last few days telling the press just how much they respect New Zealand – a sure sign of confidence (England fall for the flattery every time). Even the notoriously jingoistic Aussie press has joined in the pre-series diplomacy/kidology. In today's Melbourne Age, Chris Cairns is referred to as "the game's premier allrounder". This may have been true a year ago, but since that was the last time Cairns played a Test, it might be stretching a point.

Both sides will be at full strength, which means New Zealand will have to be at their superhuman best to add another fern to their black caps. Their batting is under-rated: left-handed opener Mark Richardson averages almost 55 from his first nine Tests, Mathew Sinclair 51 in 13, and Craig McMillan - an unsung hero a la former Kiwi batsman Andrew Jones - 42 in 31. With Daniel Vettori at No. 10, NZ's only weaknesses in the order come at No. 1 (Matthew Bell, who averages 25) and No. 11 (Shayne O'Connor). Not since the days of John Wright and Martin Crowe have things looked so solid.

Their biggest problem will be bowling Australia out twice. Cairns, Dion Nash, O'Connor and Vettori is a more than handy attack when everyone's fully fit, but only O'Connor isn't returning from injury. Richard Hadlee took 15 for 123 at Brisbane in 1985-86, including nine wickets in the first innings, but he's chairman of selectors now, and no-one is in the current side is in his class. New Zealand's best hope is to win the toss and exploit the Gabba when it's at its juiciest. Otherwise Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie might have dictated the pattern for the series by lunch.

Trying to find weaknesses in the Aussie side is as fruitless as writing off Shane Warne, who has taken 44 wickets in six Tests at Brisbane at a shade over 18. Basically, you're looking at superiority complex, deep-vein thrombosis, and Brett Lee (the only Aussie who would fail to make a composite XI of the two sides: Cairns's greater consistency and batting would see to that).

But Australia v New Zealand has never been as straightforward as that, and NZ just love making life difficult for their next-door neighbours. Of the six series (two of them comprising one-off Tests) between 1985-86 and 1992-93, Australia won just one. Then there was the World Cup ambush at Cardiff in 1999 when Cairns and Roger Twose knocked the Aussies around as if they were Bangladesh.

On the other hand, Australia are tougher than that these days. Each of the three Tests they have lost in their exceptional 23-match run has contained a miraculous individual performance: VVS Laxman, Harbhajan Singh and Mark Butcher. This time, only one man can stop them. Chris Cairns, fate is calling.

Australia 1 Matthew Hayden, 2 Justin Langer, 3 Ricky Ponting, 4 Mark Waugh, 5 Steve Waugh (capt), 6 Damien Martyn, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Shane Warne, 9 Brett Lee, 10 Jason Gillespie, 11 Glenn McGrath.

New Zealand 1 Matthew Bell, 2 Mark Richardson, 3 Mathew Sinclair, 4 Stephen Fleming (capt), 5 Nathan Astle, 6 Craig McMillan, 7 Chris Cairns, 8 Adam Parore (wk), 9 Dion Nash, 10 Daniel Vettori, 11 Shayne O'Connor.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com.

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