The triangular tournament involving hosts Zimbabwe and tourists India and West Indies starts on Saturday, and it is as unpredictable a tournament as one is likely to find. Three unpredictable teams are taking part, and each one has its morale-sapping burdens to carry and overcome.

Zimbabwe, fresh from their series-levelling Test victory over India, have been rocked by the news that their star batsman and wicket-keeper Andy Flower has withdrawn from the side, not only for the tournament but also for the series against West Indies. He injured a thumb during the Second Test and his hand will be in plaster for some time. These will be the first international matches that Flower will have missed since he made his debut in the World Cup of 1991/92. It is the end of a proud record.

His withdrawal is likely to affect the morale of the other players who have always looked to him as the backbone of the team. However, some might just take the opportunity to rise to the occasion and lift their game to take responsibility for the loss of their world-class player.

India have had to endure much harsh criticism for failing to win the series against Zimbabwe, as indeed they should have done. Their disappointment will be bitter, and they too will need to drag themselves up by their bootstraps and revive their damaged morale.

For West Indies, their burden, apart from the retirement of Courtney Walsh, is the administrative upheaval that resulted in manager Ricky Skerritt being sacked and then reinstated, not to mention the recent resignation of the leading members of their Board of Control back home. This will surely have some effect on the players as it will affect their futures. Their coach at least will be under some pressure. They also have the disadvantage of having to adjust to local conditions in quick time.

West Indies, according to Skerritt, consider themselves the underdogs for the tournament, and on paper that is probably correct. Zimbabwe and India both showed in their Test series that they have very good pace attacks, accurate and penetrative. For the first time now, the West Indies will have to play without a single one of their great pacemen of the last 20 years and more. Walsh is no longer around to hold their attack together, and the young and comparatively inexperienced pacemen will need to take on the extra responsibility to atone for his retirement.

The West Indies' wild card, though, is of course Brian Lara. Like captain Carl Hooper, he visited Zimbabwe during the eighties as a member – captain actually – of a Young West Indian team, so he knows what to expect, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. Lara has yet fully to overcome the problems of not long ago being considered the world's greatest batsman, with all-time Test and first-class records to his credit, and also of being the star player in a fading team. But it is hard to believe he will leave Zimbabwe without making his mark in a big way in at least one match, if not the whole tournament.

India's star is Sachin Tendulkar, who has been able to handle his fame more readily than Lara and will be eager to atone for his comparative `failure' in the recent Test series. Zimbabwe, deprived of Andy Flower, now have to face the opposition without a world-class batsman in their ranks.

Extra responsibility therefore falls on Zimbabwe's bowlers to ensure that the opposition totals are kept within bounds. If Heath Streak's knee starts to trouble him after a long season, they will have serious problems, but at least they have perhaps more back-up pace bowlers than ever before. Seamers of the quality of Bryan Strang and Pommie Mbangwa have been omitted; Eddo Brandes, according to many reports bowling consistently better than he has ever done, is not considered, and there are several other young pace bowlers who can step into the breach, even with Henry Olonga and Brighton Watambwa injured. But Streak, as the backbone of the attack and a vital batsman, especially in the one-day game, is irreplaceable.

India have a powerful batting line-up that, apart from Shiv Sunder Das, has not yet done itself justice on pitches with more bounce than those to which they are accustomed. Sourav Ganguly has an outstanding one-day record and may well find his elusive form in this tournament, while VVS Laxman, if he exercises a little more judgement, could be devastating. Rahul Dravid will add stability.

West Indies must be worried about their batsmen, most of whom have yet to come to terms with the Zimbabwean conditions. They have not performed well in their two warm-up matches, and gave the impression that they were rather too casual and failing to apply themselves seriously enough. That attitude will obviously spell failure unless they can make serious adjustments in quick time. But there is too much latent talent there to write them off.

If forced into a corner, my prediction would be India against Zimbabwe in the final, with India winning. But in a tournament as unpredictable as this, that is mere guesswork. Much depends on Zimbabwe's ability to live without Andy Flower, the success of the Indian batting and the inspiration of Lara. West Indian cricket will turn the corner sometime, and it might just be now.

© CricInfo Ltd.