England haven't beaten Australia at Trent Bridge since 1977 and prospects aren't looking good for the third Test, which begins in Nottingham tomorrow. Australia have named the same XI that won the first two Tests at a stroll, while England continue to chop and change up to the final moment. An Aussie win will make it seven series victories in a row over England, while a draw would be enough to retain the Ashes, which England haven't held since 1989. For England, this really is last-chance saloon. Graham Thorpe's broken hand and the more placid nature of the Trent Bridge strip means that England will play five bowlers, three of whom will be Darren Gough, Andy Caddick and Craig White. Dominic Cork, who has lost his outswing, is no longer in the squad, which leaves three bowlers fighting for two places. England want a spinner, so Robert Croft has to play, despite figures of 2 for 117 at this ground against Australia four years ago, while the other place depends on the fitness of Alex Tudor. He is expected to recover from a side strain, but if he doesn't, there will be an unlikely first Test cap for Somerset's Richard Johnson, surprisingly called into the squad ahead of Martin Bicknell when Chris Silverwood pulled out today. Johnson is the 28th squad member England have called up for international matches this summer.

A trickier choice for England will be who bats at No. 6. The two contenders are Usman Afzaal and Ian Ward. Afzaal would be playing on his home ground, but he was out of his depth on his debut at Edgbaston, and England can ill afford another passenger in the field after the bout of butter-fingers at Lord's. Ward hardly inspires more confidence, but England have been careful to show loyalty to their players this summer, and he is the man in possession. Either way, Australia won't be worried.

England's longer tail - White will bat at No. 7 after struggling at 8 in the first two Tests - will put greater pressure on the top-order. At least Mike Atherton has made five Test hundreds in 17 innings at Trent Bridge and averages 64.50, while Alec Stewart hit a swashbuckling 87 there against Australia in 1997.

But England's big challenge is to get through Nos 4 to 7 in the Australian batting order. A theory arose during the 1999 World Cup that the imposing new stand at the Radcliffe Road end helped the ball to swing, so Caddick and White could play a key role. But they should beware. Steve Waugh has made a Test hundred at every English ground bar two: The Oval and Trent Bridge. A man with his sense of history and occasion could prove even more unshiftable than usual.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com

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