As with so many reports of this nature, there is a get-out clause: recorded highlights of the Test matches should be made available to other broadcasters. But the auction for the live rights to the Test matches at home is likely to be won by Sky Sports.

At least that is the scenario many observers predict. But Sky Sports are not the owners of Test cricket yet. First of all, the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, Chris Smith, will consider the report. Is the exclusion of Test cricket from the Listed Events the conclusion he wanted?

There are political considerations: MPs' postbags will be full of complaints from constituents unhappy about the loss of Test cricket from their BBC screens. In the House of Lords, Lord Howell, the former Sports Minister and football referee Denis Howell, will marshal allies from all parties to challenge any change in the Listed Events.

He defeated the previous Government once: he may well do so again. The Prime Minister might be concerned that many children - the grass roots both Government and cricket want to encourage - will be unable to see the best cricketers in action.

Even if the ECB succeed in fighting off all these challenges, they will then have to persuade Sky Sports to pay the fancy price they seek. This is by no means guaranteed. The agenda at BSkyB, the parent of Sky Sports, has changed since the departure of the Australian, Sam Chisholm.

What the new management, especially Rupert Murdoch's daughter Elizabeth, wants is an improvement in the programme schedule at Sky 1. In addition, sizeable sums of money are needed for the start of digital satellite television later this year. It is just possible that Sky Sports will not be given the money needed to secure Test cricket. The fact is that football sells dishes; cricket is far less likely to do so.

Despite all these ifs and maybes, the likelihood remains that live Test cricket will disappear from terrestrial television screens. It will add to the losses suffered by the BBC over the last 18 months and will make Grandstand in the summer unsustainable.

There will be some within the BBC, however, who will not be displeased. There are BBC practitioners who dislike the time, resources and money that have been devoted to cricket over the years. Five-day Test matches are difficult to schedule and are often concluded out of peak-time. Those sniffy about sport ask what is wrong with a package of highlights shown close to midnight?

The answer is simple: sport needs to be live; recorded sport is second-hand and usually second best. One only has to look at what has happened to international rugby union this season. Audiences for England's home matches have been decimated. Test cricket has never had a big viewing audience but this will shrink still further, and what will the sponsors say then?

Sir Paul Fox is former head of sport and managing director of BBC Television

The Lists

LIST A: Olympic Games; FIFA World Cup Finals - final, semi-finals and matches involving the home nations; European Football Championships - final, semi-finals and matches involving home nations; FA Cup Final and Scottish FA Cup Final (in Scotland); Wimbledon finals; the Grand National; the Derby.

LIST B: Test matches; FIFA World Cup Finals - all matches not on 'A' list; European Football Championships - all matches not on 'A' list; FIFA World Cup qualifying matches involving home nations; Five Nations rugby; Rugby World Cup - final, semi-finals and matches involving the home nations; Cricket World Cup - final, semi-finals and matches involving the home nations; Wimbledon - all play other than finals weekend; Commonwealth Games; World Athletics Championship; the Open; the Ryder Cup.