Never has an England selection committee held the key to the winter plans of so many cricketers as they do tonight. The teams for Australia and for the one-day side who will compete in the ICC knockout tournament in Bangladesh, will detain them less than the party of A team cricketers to be chosen from the mass of promising young county cricketers.
Happily Alec Stewart and his team will not be deflected by the Bangladesh tournament which clashes with the start of the Ashes tour. The one-day players for the last part of the tour to Australia will be chosen separately after Bangladesh, so for once the selectors have the luxury of concentrating solely on the five Tests and the five first-class matches which surround them.
They must bear in mind the different pitch and weather conditions on all five grounds: sultry Brisbane where the ball swings; Perth, where it is usually hard and fast; Adelaide, a batsman's paradise; Melbourne, where it usually swings and the bounce can become uneven; and Sydney, where invariably the pitch suits spinners.
The question whether two specialist spinners are required for the final Test in Sydney could decide the Ashes. It is tempting to include both Hick and Crawley with the six batsmen who are certain to go - Stewart, Atherton, Butcher, Hussain, Thorpe and Ramprakash - especially in view of the fact that Atherton, Thorpe and Hick all have suspect backs. But if eight hardened Test batsmen all start the tour, the odds are that at least one of them will have a very frustrating tour.
Like Angus Fraser on the last tour, Hick might keep at the ready by playing in some competitive grade cricket in Australia. There is room for him only if he or Ramprakash is to be used as the second spinner at Sydney.
Hick has actually taken seven wickets at 34 this season to Robert Croft's 18 at 59, but Croft has a much better record overseas for England, and two specialist spin bowlers are essential for one of the few grounds in the world where they might have a real chance of turning a Test match.
Tufnell has been England's most accomplished spin bowler of the last 10 years but he has been unable to win a game for England on two tours of Australia, where his return is 19 Test wickets at 40.
If Ian Salisbury bowls out Sri Lanka today he will deserve to go but Ashley Giles had an effective A tour of Australia two winters ago and had to bowl at Old Trafford on an unhelpful pitch, so the lot falls on Croft and Giles.
I go for Aymes as second wicketkeeper in case Stewart breaks a finger in practice on the eve of a high-pressure Test match. Aymes may be 34 but he is tough, fit, agile and a batsman who would not be overawed.
Four fast bowlers - Darren Gough, Fraser, Dominic Cork and Alan Mullally - are certainties but the first and second, and fourth and fifth, Tests will be played back-to-back, so it is desirable to have a full set of experienced reserves.
There is not much to choose between Andrew Caddick and Dean Headley, but Giddins has taken 70 wickets in a first season for Warwickshire which has impressed Brian Lara and ought to have impressed the selectors. He swings the ball at around 85 mph and is bound to take wickets.
A small party for an experimental eight-a-side tournament in Western Australia in October will also be selected today and Chris Adams, who has captained well in his first season at Hove, would be a suitable leader.
My choices for the three main England tours this winter would be:
Probable tour squad
To Australia: * - A J Stewart, M A Atherton, M A Butcher, N Hussain, G P Thorpe, M R Ramprakash, J P Crawley, - A N Aymes, B C Hollioake, R D B Croft, A F Giles, D G Cork, D Gough, A R C Fraser, A D Mullally, E S H Giddins, D W Headley.
A team to Zimbabwe & S Africa: * S P James, D L Maddy, R W T Key, M B Loye, O A Shah, A Flintoff, S D Peters, M J Powell, - C M W Read, G P Swann, C P Schofield, S D Thomas, S J Harmison, A J Tudor, P J Franks, J D Lewry.
To Bangladesh: * A J Hollioake, N V Knight, A D Brown, G A Hick, C J Adams, B F Smith, A Flintoff, R C Irani, M A Ealham, M V Fleming, - W Hegg, P M Such, I D Austin, P J Martin, M P Bicknell.