If all three under-rated sides were to win their Shell Cup games tomorrow, all six teams could end the round robin phase of the competition within two points of each other.

The points table going into the final round is: (with net run rates in brackets) Northern Districts 11 (-0.168), Canterbury 10 (0.235), Central Districts 10 (0.461), Wellington 8 (0.206), Auckland 8 (-0.406), Otago 7 (-0.143).

For the under-rated sides to win, Auckland would have to beat Northern Districts in Auckland, Wellington would have to beat Canterbury in Christchurch and Otago would have to beat Central Districts in Invercargill.

That would leave the points table looking like this: Northern Districts 11, Canterbury 10, Central Districts 10, Wellington 10, Auckland 10, Otago 9.

Given that that is the worst-case scenario, there are all manner of other possibilities.

Taken game by game they are:

ND v Auckland.

ND leads the competition although it has lost its last two games against the late runners - Canterbury and Wellington. If ND wins it is assured of 13 points and first place. If it loses it could finish as low as third.

Auckland needs to win to keep its hopes alive. However, Auckland's situation was exacerbated by its dismissal for 73 in 25.5 overs, which are counted as a 50-over innings in the net run rate stakes, by CD yesterday and it is unlikely to be able to rectify the situation to qualify.

Before they even have a chance to control their own destiny, results in the other two matches must go their way. CD must be beaten by Otago and Canterbury have to deny Wellington full points - or be thumped by a large margin if they can't.

Canterbury v Wellington.

Are these two teams never at peace in Shell Cup play? Canterbury if it wins could finish the round robin in first place. That is reliant on Auckland beating ND. If it loses it will be equal with Wellington on 10 points. It would then require CD to also lose in Invercargill in order to secure a semi-final berth.

The equation is simple for Wellington - win and they're in, lose and they're not. If victorious it would have recorded more wins than Canterbury and be guaranteed a semi-final spot. Whether they hosted that match would depend on Central losing to Otago.

Otago v Central Districts.

Otago are out of contention and the best they can finish is fourth, if Wellington and Auckland lose.

Central Districts could still finish in first place. That would be reliant on ND and Canterbury losing. If ND wins and Canterbury loses, CD could be second. Both situations would give it home advantage for their next game. If ND and Canterbury both win, then CD is guaranteed third place even if it loses. CD would play Canterbury in Christchurch in Sunday's semi-final.

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