England's intention had been to field two spinners at Old Trafford, Robert Croft, and a second to turn the ball away from the right-handers. England's selectors will still name a second spinner today, probably Ashley Giles, who would have been watched by the coach David Lloyd if Warwickshire's game had got off the waterlogged ground; but the wet weather is likely to stop him playing in the Test, just as it did in the one-day international there last month.

Even Peter Marron, Old Trafford's groundsman, is unwilling to predict what his Test strip will do as it has been re-laid and not used for a Test match before. But June has been so wet - and the 'tent' which Lancashire once had is no longer in use - that the Test match, like Lancashire's county games at home this season, is sure to be dominated by seam.

In these circumstances, Dean Headley is sure to be replaced by Darren Gough, and Mark Ealham to be discarded. His natural successor would be Ben Hollioake, but the selectors' reaction to an injury crisis at Lord's - the three replacements they called up were all in their 30s suggests that youth may not be given its head. Alan Mullally and Peter Martin, therefore, have a chance of a recall, as well as Chris Silverwood and Ed Giddins.

The other change will be Mark Butcher to replace Steve James, provided Butcher confirms his recovery from a thumb injury during Surrey's AXA League match today. Yesterday he should have played for Cheam but his match was called off after two overs.

It is crucial for England and English cricket that the Test side this week dig deep into something other than the reservoir of ignominy. Another defeat like that at Lord's - which occurred in only three days of playing time - would bring Alec Stewart's reign to crisis-point even earlier than those of most England captains.

Spin was going to be the winning formula at Old Trafford, or rather the way to draw level again with South Africa. Their only accomplished players of spin are Hansie Cronje and Jonty Rhodes; Daryll Cullinan is particularly susceptible as he was dismissed by spinners in seven of his 11 Test innings before this series.

For Robert Croft, if he is the sole spinner, it will be a big game. In his eight home Tests he has taken 11 wickets, and did not look like adding to them at Lord's when he pushed the ball through to keep it tight, whereas even the one wicket of Cronje or Rhodes might have kept England in the match.