With increasing international commitments, national teams have become increasingly unpredictable as injuries take their toll and players suffer from a degree of burnout. The exceptions, perhaps, are Australia and Bangladesh, who for different reasons turn in similar performances match after match.

Probably the most unpredictable side of all are Pakistan. Vastly talented, despite their recent traumas and their moans of a shortage of class batsmen, they can beat anybody on their day, but they can also collapse miserably even against mediocre opposition. Zimbabwe too are hard to predict, the main factors being the team's collective confidence and sense of inspiration at any given time. Probably only insiders have much idea of what that is like until the team gets on to the field.

The weather is also unpredictable. The Pakistani warm-up match lost the entire last day to persistent rain, which is still very much around and looks ready to recur. This is unusual for November, when it tends to rain heavily but not regularly, and soon gets it over with. At present, though, there is a real chance that the Harare Test at least might be ravaged by rain.

On paper, Pakistan have the stronger side, especially in bowling. Zimbabwe's one world-class bowler Heath Streak is out of the series through injury, and the best bowler of the ICC Champions Trophy, Douglas Hondo, is also injured and no more than possible for the Second Test. Zimbabwe have included their best wicket-keeper in Tatenda Taibu, but the downside of this is that it permits them to play only four frontline bowlers.

Opening their attack will be Andy Blignaut and Henry Olonga, who has been restored to the team at the last minute. All-rounder Blessing Mahwire will back them up with his seamers, but his improvement and promotion is sudden and it is a gamble to throw him into the Test arena so suddenly. If he does well it will be a major credit to the selectors, but many of their promotions have failed to do the job, which is a major bone of contention they have with the senior players.

Raymond Price is the specialist spinner; he is used to bowling 40 or more overs in an innings and may well be called upon to do so on a Harare Sports Club pitch that has been taking a little spin from the first day in Logan Cup matches this season. But probably only Olonga is capable of creating havoc among the Pakistani batsmen; in the past his interventions were infrequent but devastating. Ask the English batsmen who have feasted off him in the past but were totally shredded by his brilliant six wickets for 20 runs performance in a one-day match in Cape Town two years ago.

But Henry has not done it since. He bowled well in the Logan Cup match in Bulawayo last weekend, according to reports, although his figures did not show it. He has often been dogged by injury and is reluctant to bowl flat out for fear of injuring himself again. Yet it is only when he does pull out all the stops that he is really a Test-class bowler. This is a serious dilemma for Henry himself and for his captain and coach? Does he attempt top pace and risk breaking down, or does he hold back and risk being innocuous? I fear that, with only four specialist bowlers in the side, safety first will win the day and Henry will again fail to make a major impact on this series.

Pakistan's attack will be led by Waqar Younis, Shoaib Akhtar and Saqlain Mushtaq, and at this point any comparison between the two teams' attacks stops, even without mention of the talented Mohammads, pacemen Sami and Zahid. Even without Wasim Akram, who will play in the one-day series only, Pakistan's bowling is far superior to Zimbabwe's.

What about the batting? On recent form, only Andy Flower of the Zimbabwean line-up has made an impact against quality bowling in Test cricket. Grant Flower, stand-in captain Alistair Campbell and Guy Whittall (who will play subject to a fitness test) have all played outstanding innings earlier in their careers. Aged between 30 and 32, they are all theoretically at their best. All have shown recently they still have the appetite for success, so is it too much to hope for that at least one of them will make an impact in this series?

Of the other batsmen, Hamilton Masakadza is back, Zimbabwe's greatest future batting hope, but he has had little quality cricket at university in South Africa and will need to make a major adjustment. Dion Ebrahim is still finding his feet in Test cricket.

Pakistan's batting is perhaps not as impressive on paper as its bowlers, but they do have Inzamam-ul-Haq, recently scorer of 329 in a Test innings, and Yousuf Youhana, who has a fine Test record behind him but is very short of time in the middle after injury. Perhaps their most interesting batsman in Hasan Raza, who made his Test debut against Zimbabwe in 1996/97 at the reputed age of 14. He has played only occasionally for Pakistan since then, but recently won back his place and, at the age of 20, may find this the tour where he really starts to make his mark on international cricket.

Pakistan's past record in Zimbabwe looks good, but that is deceptive. In 1994/95 they won the Test series and drew the one-day series, but in the process provided Zimbabwe with their first-ever Test victory, as well as the first time they had avoided defeat in a one-day series. Even then they could not have done it without Inzamam-ul-Haq, on his third visit here. Without his incredible batting feats when all around him were failing, Zimbabwe would have won the Third Test match and the second one-day international, and thus both series.

In 1997/98 Pakistan won both the Test and one-day series, two matches in each. This time Zimbabwe's nemesis was Yousuf Youhana, then at the beginning of his international career. In all four matches it was Yousuf who played a vital innings at a critical time, and without his contribution Pakistan might well have lost any or all of these. I found it incredible that he should have played such a vital role and yet not be rewarded with a single Man of the Match or Man of the Series award.

Without Inzamam in 1993/94 and Youhana in 1997/98, Pakistan might have had a very different record in Zimbabwe. And Pakistan will not need reminding that, in the last series between the two teams, in 1998/99, Zimbabwe invaded the tiger's lair and won their first Test series abroad with victory in the Test at Peshawar. They will be hungry for revenge.

Yet it is an irony of history that Pakistan have never played their best against Zimbabwe. The two teams have played four series; the one we have not mentioned was Zimbabwe's first tour to Pakistan in 1993/94, Zimbabwe's first overseas tour. Despite losing two-nil to Wasim and Waqar at their very peak, Zimbabwe played with much credit. It was an outstanding bowling series for Eddo Brandes and David Brain, while Heath Streak made an impressive debut. On the batting side, Alistair Campbell showed such brilliant form that he was touted as the coming star of the 1990s - which never happened. Zimbabwe went down to a far stronger side, but the Pakistani batting in particular never got its act together and was heavily criticized.

To look at history the other way round, we could say, in fact, that Zimbabwe has an excellent record against Pakistan in Test cricket. They are the only senior Test-playing country we have beaten twice, and it could be said that they rarely allowed Pakistan to dominate them, despite the yawning gap between the quality of the two teams on paper in all their encounters.

Zimbabwe cricket actually owes a great debt of gratitude to Pakistan. In our early years of Test cricket it was very hard to persuade other countries to play us, but Pakistan were the most obliging of all, playing four series and 11 Tests (one was abandoned in 1998/99) against Zimbabwe in six seasons. So there has been an unusual gap of almost four years since the teams last met in the Test arena.

What is the Pakistani mind-set after their recent disasters against Australia? They can be the most miserable of sides, but they can also be the wounded tiger that fights most ferociously when all the chips are down. Zimbabwe are shortly to find out which Pakistan has come on this tour.

According to series captain Alistair Campbell, morale among the Zimbabwean players is high. After some tough times last season, they were on the way up by the end of it, under the guidance of coach Geoff Marsh. They have had an eight-month hiatus since they last trod the Test arena and are raring to go. They know Pakistan came an awful cropper against Australia and are eager to take advantage of it. But will the wounded tiger emerge?

This is a series between two wounded teams, and may well be won by the side which is better prepared mentally. If there is near equality in this department, then the advantage must lie with Pakistan.

The teams are as follows:

Zimbabwe: *Alistair Campbell, Hamilton Masakadza, Dion Ebrahim, Andy Flower, Grant Flower, Guy Whittall, +Tatenda Taibu, Andy Blignaut, Blessing Mahwire, Raymond Price, Henry Olonga. If Whittall is unfit, he will be replaced by Mark Vermeulen.

Pakistan: (from) *Waqar Younis, Inzamam-ul Haq, Taufeeq Umar, Shahid Afridi, Saleem Elahi, Younis Khan, Yousuf Youhana, Faisal Iqbal, Hasan Raza, +Rashid Latif, +Kamran Akmal, Saqlain Mushtaq, Shoaib Akhtar, Mohammad Zahid, Mohammad Sami.

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