In the 14 months since the Colombo defeat which cost them their home series against England last year, Sri Lanka have carried virtually all before them. They have won all but one of the 11 Tests they have played since, and in so doing beaten India (2-1), Bangladesh (1-0), West Indies (3-0) and Zimbabwe (3-0), all at home, and for good measure defeated Pakistan at Lahore in the final of the Asian Test Championship. By contrast England have not won a rubber in the same period, drawing 1-1 with Pakistan, losing 4-1 to Australia and 1-0 to India, and then squaring their most recent series in New Zealand at a game apiece.

Despite those relative records, England are still hot favourites to win the first Test starting at Lord's tomorrow, with the emphasis on the word hot. Although the weather forecast is for an improvement in temperatures, conditions will still be alien to the tourists.

As they have found during their travels round the country, the Sri Lankans will be faced with a seaming pitch offering, no doubt, extravagant movement ideally suited to the likes of Andrew Caddick and his friends. If it is warm and humid, there could well be similar movement through the air as well.

The pattern of the tour so far has been one of inconsistency from the Sri Lankan batsmen. Top rate individuals they might be, but they have yet to perform as a unit. One fears for their well being if they bat first at Lord's and England's pace attack get the ball in the right place and the flamboyant batsmen go for their shots. All out for 180 ten minutes after lunch would have to be a possibility if all those factors materialise!

Having said that, the opposition are usually inspired by the surroundings of Lord's and the Sri Lankans have shown in the past that they are capable of rising to the occasion. It will be a major surprise if they do not find much better form than they have in their warm-up matches.

Granted, Muttiah Muralitharan has been ruled out of the Lord's Test with the shoulder injury he sustained in on his 30th birthday in the Sharjah Cup final. But beware of Sanath Jayasuriya's assertion that Murali's absence at Lord's, if not for the next two Tests, gives Sri Lanka the chance to prove that they are more than a one-man team.

Nor are they. Jayasuriya is averaging 41 in Tests, Mahela Jayawardene close on 50. Aravinda de Silva may be 36, but he too averages over 40 and has invaluable experience of English conditions. Kumar Sangakkara may not be the tidiest wicket-keeper in the world, but his average of 53 from 20 Tests is remarkable, and he has made runs abroad.

Purely on averages, the top England batting is not as impressive. Graham Thorpe is the only man averaging over 40; Alec Stewart (39), Marcus Trescothick (37) and Nasser Hussain (36) come next. If Chaminda Vaas relishes conditions as he should, those averages might well be in for a reduction rather than enhancement.

Even so, the England batting line-up appears so strong that it is hard to see them being bowled out cheaply twice. The discussion is whether Alec Stewart or Andrew Flintoff bats at number eight, which is a ridiculous problem for the management to face!

On the evidence of the tour so far, the tourists might well get bowled out cheaply once. Whether it happens again will be dependent on their own will to succeed, the discipline of the England attack and, above all, the notoriously fickle English weather at this time of year.

© CricInfo