To the outsider, it may seem incomprehensible that the biggest stories surrounding Australian team selection at the outset of this Test series against New Zealand centre on a man out of the team, rather than the twelve in it.

Considerable confusion could also be said to emanate from the near-total lack of fanfare afforded to the New Zealanders' opening four games of the tour.

Yet, from potential mystery, it might actually be said that there comes illumination of where things appear to stand at the outset of this battle.

The hubbub over Michael Slater's recent omission from Australia's line-up - and his subsequent inability to reclaim a place - tells at least two pretty important stories in itself.

Not only has it been a rarity for changes to be made to his country's team over recent years. But Slater's disappointment also isn't the worst indication that a glut of high-performing batsmen right across Australia are almost queuing up to have the chance to face an attack many commentators are already labelling as suspect.

For the New Zealanders, meanwhile, the low-key start to the tour has presented a pretty good clue that the start to their Australian sojourn has functioned as an exercise in trying to make up for lost time and lost ground.

From the moment that they were forced to abort their trip to Pakistan in September, the exercise of preparing appropriately for a tour of Australia has not been an easy one. That the early results on tour have been mediocre - and that there now persists an impression that there may not be enough starch in the Black Caps' line-up for Australia to be kept at bay - underlines the point.

So, with that background established, do the Black Caps have a genuine chance of victory when attention finally shifts to the real contest tomorrow?

On all of the available evidence, it's hard to make a case for them.

In facing the world's champion team, they meet a batting line-up which runs about as deep as the waters of the Pacific Ocean. Worse still, among a powerful top six for the Australians that also includes the likes of Matthew Hayden, Ricky Ponting and Mark Waugh, only Steve Waugh has failed to feast on domestic bowling attacks so far this summer. And that's essentially only because a brush with deep vein thrombosis has prevented him from doing so.

Lest the visitors should think it gets any easier from there, a top order that has failed to inspire great confidence in its early form on tour will need to battle the world's most lethal bowling attack. Fresh from domination over England in their winter, Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie will again be joined with the new ball. They have no less willing company to follow them in Brett Lee and Shane Warne.

In terms of results, Australia's 2-1 series loss in India last March now represents a gross aberration in the midst of an extraordinary run of success. In two years, there has not been a single other series draw or defeat. From 20 other Test matches, 19 have been won. It's compelling form.

Injuries are not assisting the New Zealanders' cause either. Their leading player, Chris Cairns, has only recently returned from a string of problems. A general tale of woe has been compounded by lingering trouble for Daniel Vettori and Dion Nash, two other players who have also faced enduring struggles with injury. Though his potential to shape the series has probably been overstated in some quarters - given that the matches in the series will be played on three surfaces among the least receptive to spin in the country - Vettori's presence on the field is seen as particularly vital to the Black Caps' cause.

Recent history, current form, current circumstances, and the home ground advantage therefore all point to Australia when the series commences at the 'Gabba, and when it moves to Hobart and Perth in the weeks ahead.

Provided Australia doesn't give in to the demon of complacency, the prospect of an upset represents a harder task for the Kiwis than faced the group of New Zealand basketballers who recently squeezed home over their Trans-Tasman rivals in a scrap for a World Championship place. Or than confronted mare Ethereal this week as it whisked away the holy grail of Australian horse racing - the Melbourne Cup. Much harder, in fact.

But you never know what you might get with New Zealand. And it needs to be remembered, too, that the tourists are unlikely to be lacking in motivation. To New Zealanders across the board, victory over Australia never rests far short of the pinnacle of both enjoyment and achievement.

© 2001 CricInfo Ltd