Salahuddin Ahmed (Sallu) Photo CricInfo

After a rather grim and dismal home season, in which a quietly confident England beat them in the final Test to take the series while the Indians refused to make it here owing to their government's belligerent stance, the Pakistan cricket squad has left for New Zealand, normally a happy hunting ground for them.

The Pakistanis would surely be desperate to leave the disappointments of the past season way behind them. And apart from their superior record against the Kiwis, the fact that the hosts have just been mauled quite badly by the visiting Sri Lankans and are mentally shook up, is likely to be to Pakistan's advantage.

Even in terms of balance in combinations, the Black Caps are not really at their best. Their world-class all-rounder, Chris Cairns, capable of turning a match around on his own with both bat and ball, is out of cricket for six months. To compound their misery, the left-handed Roger Twose, their most reliable batsman, has just made a comeback after a layoff because of injury, and is anything but at his best. In that backdrop, the Pakistanis look superior in all departments of the game, and given the comparative strengths of the two sides, I think that Pakistan should win hands down.

These factors are definitely going to weigh in favour of the Pakistanis, but the factor which would have the greatest say in the contests, in both versions of the game, is that the conditions would suit our extremely potent pace attack, consisting of Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis and Shoaib Akhtar, backed up by Abdur Razzaq and rookie Mohammad Sami. While Shoaib's return is quite a boon, for his raw pace is such that it runs shivers down the spines of many a batsman, it is Akram who is still the most feared new ball bowler.

Akram may have lost a couple of yards over the years, but he still remains the most inventive of pace bowlers. Bowling over the wicket, being left-handed, his outswinger is naturally good but it is his inswinger, a difficult delivery to bowl, which penetrates most defences. Written off and shabbily treated on occasions in the recent past, Younis too is a deadly customer, particularly in conditions where the ball is naturally swinging. The duo of off-spinner Saqlain Mushtaq and leggie Mushtaq Ahmad, who is making a comeback of sorts, is also likely to exploit the Kiwis' weakness against quality spin bowling.

The Pakistan team overall is a very decent blend of experience and youth. If the batting holds its own, the Pakistanis might well demolish the Kiwis with the same ruthless clinical efficiency that the Aussies displayed against a hapless West Indies. As I see it, the batting is likely to do well, because of such factors as all the main batsmen - Inzamam-ul-Haq, Yousuf Youhana and Saeed Anwar - being in fine fettle, the depth due to profusion of all-rounders down the line and to some extent because Geoff Boycott has only recently worked on the young openers, Shahid Afridi and Imran Nazir. And despite the seaming conditions, the strokemakers would relish batting in New Zealand, as not only the hosts' bowling doesn't have much of a sting but also because the smaller grounds provide ample opportunity for them to send the ball into the stands.

One other factor that needs to be mentioned and adds to the overall strength of this Pakistani team is fielding, traditionally the weaker link. The induction of youngsters, such as Shahid Afridi, Imran Nazir and Saleem Elahi has added a bit of much-needed spunk to fielding. I think that Imran Nazir is so good at backward point that had he been playing for Australia or South Africa, he would be getting the plaudits that he deserves, and maybe compared as someone close to Jonty Rhodes.

Above all, the weather and ground conditions would help the Pakistan team prepare for a slightly more arduous, truncated tour (only two Tests) of England early in the summer. Ironically, the Pakistanis are likely to beat England, just as they did on their previous three tours (1987, 1992, 1996), while they were defeated at home only recently. And they would not have gone through that ignominy had they played to their strengths and not been aliens in their own conditions. Having an embarrassment of riches in the fast bowling department, and opting for placid tracks in the hope that the spinners would do the trick was, in my opinion, a flawed strategy, and ultimately proved counter-productive.

There have been some questions regarding Moin's captaincy, to the extent that it was openly being speculated in the print media that removing him from the helm too was considered by the PCB. I believe the series loss against England has rankled with the administration, but removing Moin - the only Pakistani ever to have been really groomed to lead, right from the under-19 level - would have been a bad move at this point. In these times of top-flight coaches having their say on such matters, why should the captain alone be responsible for a defeat? Anyway, it was good that sense prevailed and Moin survived. The defensive Moin that we saw against England is not the Moin we know. He is a fighter and a positive captain. What he should do now is follow his natural instincts, which are to go for the jugular. He doesn't need to be reminded that attack is the best form of defence, and he should opt for that because he has also got the weapons to go on the offensive and get the better of the opposition. In terms of talent there are few sides which could match Pakistan at this point; if it is well led, motivated and disciplined enough, there is no reason it couldn't beat the best, and that includes Australia and South Africa.

Ed: Salahuddin Ahmed (Sallu) is a former Test cricketer, and has served as a PCB selector nine times; his last stint (1999-2000) was as chief selector.

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