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It seems like only yesterday that I umpired the first World Cup final in 1975. Yet here we are, on the eve of another - and still waiting for an England success.

I have a feeling that we may not have to wait much longer. I think England have a tremendous chance of claiming the trophy for the first time, because the conditions will suit them, and they have the players to make the most of those conditions.

Because the competition is being played in May and early June there is bound to be a lot of moisture on the squares throughout the country, and the seam bowlers such as Mark Ealham, Angus Fraser, Ian Austin and Darren Gough are well capable of exploiting the kind of pitches that will produce.

These players have been brought up on the low, seaming pitches which do not have a lot of pace in them.

The same applies to the batting. It is a strong line-up that England can call upon, and I think they have two of the world's best one-day players in Graham Thorpe and Neil Fairbrother, as well as that very exciting young man, Andy Flintoff, who is a magnificent striker of the ball.

It will be completely different to playing in Sharjah and Pakistan, where the England players have not had much success. There the pitches are very, very dry and have a lot of pace in them. They are excellent pitches to bat on. The low, slow pitches we can expect in this country in early summer will give England a huge advantage.

If you look closely at England's results in one-day internationals you will find that they have a tremendous record in this country. They have done much better on home territory than abroad, though they did reach the final in India in 1986-87, thus robbing me of my fourth World Cup final appearance.

England also featured in the 1979 final over here, when they lost to the West Indies, and on other occasions they have been there or thereabouts, so I really do fancy their chances this time.

South Africa, though, are undoubtedly the team to beat. They are a very good, well-organised one-day side, and they are exceptional in the field. That is what could well take them to the final, because I believe that fielding will play a crucial part in the outcome.

Many people will favour the Australians, but they like the quicker pitches, with the ball coming on to the bat. They do not have the kind of players who can graft on a slow, seaming pitch, and they will find it difficult to contend with the conditions. However, like South Africa, they have a great team spirit and all play for each other.

Nor can you write off Sri Lanka, the reigning champions, while Pakistan are coming good at just the right time, though the resignation of Javed Miandad, who did a tremendous job in restoring their fortunes, could harm their chances.

Both countries, along with India, will also struggle with our pitches. New Zealand, on the other hand, will feel more at home, because they are used to similar conditions.

As for the West Indies, you discount them at your peril, especially if Brian Lara hits top form, but they are clearly nowhere near the force they were.

I have no doubt that there will be a lot of run-outs as batsmen scramble for quick runs in a heated atmosphere, and umpiring decisions in such situations could be crucial. The third umpire could be faced with an even more significant role than the two men in the middle.

That is why I hope that the authorities set the cameras square and low to the ground, not placed high in the stand, which provides too difficult an angle to make a sound judgment, particularly when deciding whether the bat has been grounded or not. The closer the camera to ground level the better. I know it will be costly to provide the right equipment at the right place, but surely it will be worth it.

If you remember, five suicidal run-outs cost Australia a shock victory over the West Indies in that first final in 1975. Viv Richards accounted for three of them with some magical fielding.

When Dennis Lillee came to the crease the Aussies still needed 59 for victory. He took guard, winked at me and said: ``Don't worry, Dickie, we'll get these.'' And they very nearly did.

There was a moment during that last-wicket stand that the West Indian supporters thought it was all over. Jeff Thomson was caught by Roy Fredericks and on they swarmed in their thousands, unaware of the fact that Tommy Spencer had called ``No-ball.''

Thomson and Lillee knew the score, though, and kept on running. ``Keep going, keep going,'' panted Lillee. ``We'll soon have it won at this rate.''

``How many have you run?'' I asked him.

``You should be keeping count,'' he grumbled. ``You're the umpire. But I make it about 17.''

After the hullabaloo had died down I graciously awarded him four, and it was not enough. Thomson became the final run-out victim, leaving the West Indies winners by 17 runs.

It was a close-run thing. And I have no doubt there will be many more such exciting finishes in the weeks to come.