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Zimbabwe can afford to tip-toe into the World Cup semi-finals when they meet Pakistan at the Oval today, because events at Edgbaston yesterday pushed New Zealand, their rival for fourth place, further out of contention.

Irrespective of the weekend's remaining Super Six results Zimbabwe must ensure their run-rate stays ahead of New Zealand's if they lose to the Pakistanis. Victory would settle the issue outright, but Wasim Akram's team appear to possess enough fire power to guarantee their own place in the last four.

Circumstances suggest this could be a tame show. Pakistan have three batsmen injured, including Ijaz Ahmed and Inzamam-ul-Haq with damaged fingers, and they face the task of defeating a side who can afford to lose, provided the reverse is not a heavy one. After three successive defeats Pakistan could do with some opponents with hollow ambition.

Zimbabwe could not be blamed for safeguarding their own progress. Much has gone to plan, as their selectors announced last year that all was geared to a semi-final place.

Progress into the World Cup final would seem to be beyond them, though Zimbabwe can look forward to their recently-announced Australia tour this winter with more than empty hopes.

If the flak flies today, the Zimbabweans can revert to Plan B, to keep the run-rate respectable whatever the outcome. The situation is undignified and could be boring for the large Oval crowd, but the stakes are high.