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If you crave the World Cup trophy, the first thing to do is avoid throwing the party. No host has won the trophy, unless you want to count Sri Lanka in 1996, which is stretching a point because they were a minority shareholder and hardly anyone turned up for their part of the shindig. In the case of Australia in 1992 and now England in 1999, the hosts were thrown out before the sherry was served and the guests were left to sing along to 'Elvis has left the building'.

The setback for England was as devastating as it was swift. If this huge setback results in an honest appraisal of the situation, then I would say it was a blessing in disguise, but there is more chance Zimbabwe will win a final than English cricket taking the necessary hard decisions. In fact, Zimbabwe are close to a semi-final berth and if they hold their nerve in a first-round Super Sixes encounter with New Zealand, they could obtain the two points required. The Kiwis go into the Super Sixes with the fewest number of players in form and their batting in disarray, so Zimbabwe will never have a better chance. They also have the option of playing two leg-spinners if the Headingley pitch is dry and New Zealand are vulnerable against good wrist spinners. Zimbabwe can win that contest and move through to the semi-finals with Pakistan and South Africa, which would leave one spot for India or Australia, making their opening encounter at the Oval critical.

India have had Australia's measure in the last two significant showdowns, thanks to the brilliance of Sachin Tendulkar. If India want to go into this crucial match maintaining a psychological edge then Tendulkar must return to the top of the order. He has previously crushed Australia as an opener and it also guarantees the maestro a hit (it is pointless having such a destructive batsman come in for only the final 10 overs) and, finally, it sets up a head-on clash with Glenn McGrath, the opposition's most potent strike weapon.

The winner of this new-ball joust will do his team a huge favour in what should be one hell of a scrap, as the losers are almost out of contention.

So far, Australia have taken a conservative approach in this tournament. The format now demands that they play more aggressively and if Steve Waugh adapts, the side will benefit from the change in attitude.

Australia also need to strengthen the bowling and the inclusion of Paul Reiffel to use the old ball would give them four specialists, which is the minimum requirement for success. Australia may have to win all three matches to progress and hence they could rue the go-slow in the game against the West Indies. By trying to manipulate the results, Australia suggested they were uncertain about their ability to win every match, whereas if they'd hammered the West Indies, it would have sent a clear message of self-belief.

Pakistan are currently the team with the most confidence, so don't be led astray by the loss to Bangladesh. Sportsmen are notoriously superstitious and Pakistan would have been dreading the thought of entering the second phase undefeated, as this can be quite a cross to bear.

They have solved that problem and they possess the ability to play with less intensity in one game and then lift for the important matches. Anyone wishing to read something sinister into that comment should know that I played in teams who had a similar gift and it is a far cry from playing at a lower intensity to throwing matches. There have been some idiotic suggestions that South Africa rolled over for Zimbabwe. That shows a complete lack of understanding of the way South Africa play cricket and underestimates Zimbabwe's ability. They are a cohesive unit and Alastair Campbell's captaincy has blossomed, to the point where he is prepared to gamble: he showed that when he threw the ball to Henry Olonga in the closing stages of the thriller against India.

I don't think anyone will underestimate Zimbabwe following the win over South Africa. The Proteas also play as a unit, but so far they have relied heavily on Lance Klusener and the speed and skill of Allan Donald. Gary Kirsten's lack of form has hurt them and they must abort the experiment with the pinch-hitter and play Jacques Kallis at three, to fully utilise his batting talent.

The World Cup enters a new phase, with what is likely to be warmer weather and better pitches for batsmen, so adjustments will be required. Targets may be set a little higher and teams that carry forward no points have to plan differently from the teams who retain points. Elvis may be dead and the England team not feeling so good, but there is still a healthy competition to be won.