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When Brian Lara departed Perth after the last West Indies tour of Australia, he made a defiant prediction that smacked of unsupported bragadoccio.

``We are going to bounce back,'' he proclaimed then following a 3-2 defeat in the Test series. ``We've got them in the Caribbean in two years' time and I promise you we will not be losing that series.'' Less than a month ago, Lara's statement seemed even more outlandish. Now captain, he had just been placed on a two-match probation by the West Indies Cricket Board (WICB) and his team routed for 51 in the First Test and beaten by 312 runs to add to a recent 5-0 humiliation in South Africa.

Through his own exceptional talent and his single-minded commitment, both neglected for too long, Lara has come to fulfil his audacious pledge.

He is within five days of embellishing it with a remarkable triumph that would regain the Frank Worrell Trophy, so painfully surrendered to the Australians in 1995 after 17 years of West Indian possession.

Lara's team leads 2-1 at the start of the fourth and final Cable & Wireless Test at the Antigua Recreation Ground this morning so that a draw would be sufficient to secure the one symbol that means more to West Indian cricket than any other.

Its worth is considerably enhanced by the present circumstances. Australia started the series universally and justifiably regarded as the strongest Test team of the day. In stark contrast, the once proud and mighty West Indies had become the laughing stocks of international cricket after the shambles of South Africa.

Leading the most inexperienced West Indies team in 20 years, Lara scored 213 in the Second Test at Sabina, with essential support from his faithful lieutenant Jimmy Adams to transformed 34 for four into an eventual, match-winning 431 and inspire the revival of spirit. His phenomenal, unbeaten 153 at Kensington Oval on that never-to-be-forgotten Tuesday stole victory from under the noses of the Australians and made safe his Perth promise.

As the West Indies seek to go one better, they must be aware that their toughest opponent over the next five days is as much complacency as Australia.

There is plenty to induce a false sense of security, always the well camouflaged enemy of any sporting team.

First there is history. It strongly favours the draw that would be sufficient for the Worrell Trophy to remain in the safe-keeping of the WICB's office quarter-mile up the road from the Recreation Ground.

Seven of the 12 Tests at the venue, since the first in 1981, have been drawn. There have been 26 individual three-figures scores, of which Lara's monumental 375 against England in 1994 stands as the mother of them all.

A brown, grassless pitch indicates that batsmen should find it no less friendly than usual. The strange practice of watering it on the morning of the Test that turned it into a first day lottery in 1997 for Sri Lanka and last year for England has been reportedly abandoned so that bowlers can expect not even that brief period of encouragement.

Then there is the disruption to the Australian team caused by the diminution of two of their most vital players, leg-spinner Shane Warne and wicketkeeper Ian Healy, precisely at a time when new captain Steve Waugh is trying to establish himself in his first series since succeeding the shrewd and successful Mark Taylor.

Warne seems certain to be dropped (see back page), a decision that is bound to have a huge and contrasting psychological impact on both teams. However much he has lost his old menace, Australia will not seem the same without him.

He and Healy have been the ever talkative, always lively motivators of the team. They typified Australian toughness and defiance, sometimes to the point of arrogance and boorishness. But in this series, the spark has gone out of their cricket and the swagger out of their body language. It has had an obvious effect on the team.

While the West Indies, for once, have found a captain at ease with himself and those around him, an opening batsman in form, a useful spinner to balance their attack and a settled wicketkeeper, the Australians have problems that extend even beyond Warne and Healy.

The left-handed opener Matthew Elliott is going through such a bad patch that he would have had four ducks in the series but for a dropped catch, the impressive young fast bowler Jason Gillespie has been eliminated by a back injury and, inevitably, if unfairly, questions are being asked about Steve Waugh's captaincy.

All of which points to a telling West Indian advantage. Before the Second Test, they pointed to a telling advantage for the visitors. It is time to be wary.