Make no mistake, the first passages of play on the first day of this series are seriously important. Remember the way England bowled four years ago; remember that wretched, confidence-sapping long-hop bowled by Phillip De Freitas which Michael Slater simply crucified; remember how Mark Taylor disdainfully did not enforce the follow-on and then the persecution by Shane Warne. Remember, too, 1986 when England were put in by Allan Border, lost only two wickets on the first day, finished with 456 on the second day and then bowled out Australia twice to win.
England have to start well. Countries who lose the first Test in Brisbane lose the series - historical fact. They have to convince Australians at large that they are worthy cricketers and that the win against South Africa was no fluke. When England bat they must make the Australian bowlers earn every wicket; when they bowl they must show the discipline and heart that they so admired in the South Africans. England must contest every inch of ground, displaying lion hearts and alert minds.
They have one more than handy consideration in their favour and it just may be enough to manoeuvre a position which could stun a nation. England have been playing. They have played three tough matches against State teams, in which their cricket has clearly improved. They have won one and drawn two. This is not bad given the usual problems that touring teams have in Perth; given the likelihood of stalemate in Adelaide; given the ghastly pitch in Cairns and Queensland's very strong team. England have shown character and, still in their way being insecure, will have had their morale lifted by Monday's breathless victory.
The Australians have not played much meaningful cricket since Pakistan. Though Michael Kasprowicz chose to play in Cairns, the Waugh brothers and Glenn McGrath turned down a one-day match for New South Wales at the weekend and came early to Brisbane to prepare. Nothing is expected of England, which is a good position from which to inflict a shock. Australia are expected to win comfortably, for they have much to lose. They know this, but are playing it down.
It is a red herring to talk of the poor beginnings of the '86 tour and to suggest that England will respond with similar vigour to the occasion. For one thing, Australia were a poorish side then and are a terrific side now. England were also blessed by the greatness of Botham and Gower and the excellence of others such as Edmonds and Emburey. It is more realistic to appreciate that this England team have become increasingly resilient and have seven or eight very good Test match cricketers to lean upon - though no great ones. But best of all will not this time be confronted by the demon that is Warne, the one who is their nemesis.
Four years ago English players climbed the television gantry here at the Gabba and studied Warne's wrist actions, while in awe of his genius. Warne plays on the mind, extracting self-belief from an opponent and insisting that, whatever else in the match, the Warne factor will rule. But Warne is in Melbourne, regenerating, so now it is McGrath, the Ambrose of his time, who England must conquer; and Steve and Mark Waugh, two brilliant, winning cricketers whose play complements each other so ideally. England need have no anxiety beyond these three, the rest are manageable - darned good, but not special.
The Australian selectors have chosen their 12 thoughtfully. Ricky Ponting has usurped Darren Lehman because Ponting plays faster bowling particularly well. Poor Lehman, for so long he waited and now he is discarded without a crime.
Jason Gillespie is fit again, and roaring, and so Paul Reiffel is ignored. Reiffel, apparently, is too English a bowler for these pitches and Gillespie is in line to play in Perth if not here in Brisbane. These are such good selections - unemotional judgments based on facts. England are playing against the men they would least like to.
The Reiffel point is central to the series. Australia are leaving out a man who bowls in the English style. England will select three of these. If the pitches do not offer movement off the seam especially, but movement in the air too, the English attack will be exposed for its lack of dimension. This will increase the workload on the batsman it becomes to hold the team together. If collapses occur the batsman can be blamed unreasonably, for it is a rum thing to pursue enormous Australian totals time after time.
In short, England cannot afford bad sessions, let alone bad days, because the Australians are the best around at skinning a team alive if they break the defensive line. England must concentrate absolutely, not intermittently, and must be prepared to challenge Australia when the opportunity for attack arises.
If England retain their discipline, believe in themselves utterly and capitalise on their moments of supremacy they can surprise Australia and overturn them. They may have their best chance at the Gabba on Friday and must not spurn it.