There have been a few mutterings in the media about an itinerary that has some Australian players arriving home too late to play a first-class game before the Gabba Test. If England had pulverised WA and SA and their form was the hot topic as the Australians arrived home a little weary from Pakistan, you can bet those mutterings would have turned to a deafening roar. Now, instead of the Australian players constantly being badgered about a gruelling itinerary that could be construed as favouring England, the emphasis is on their highly successful unbeaten tour of Pakistan.

Despite the fact that Australia, on the last three tours of England, have gone out of their way to hammer the county sides, Alec Stewart's team still do not seem to have grasped the importance of this tactic. On the contrary, England have given the impression that they are trying to build gradually to a peak for the first Test. This would be acceptable from an established side, but Stewart's team still have a lot to prove in Australia and they could have redressed the balance by firing from ball one and demolishing the opposition. The difference in approaches typifies the gulf between the two competitions - Sheffield Shield matches are played as though it is a life or death struggle, while often the county competition resembles an interruption to an otherwise pleasant afternoon tea party.

England need to do everything right to win the Ashes, but they have made a stumbling start. Stewart will have to hope that the mammoth partnership between Graham Thorpe and Mark Ramprakash in Adelaide is the point from which England commence the turnaround. Apart from that partnership the batting has been lacklustre on tour, but it will eventually be the minimal variety in the bowling which costs England any chance of winning the series.

Stewart has at his command a capable group of seamers, but he lacks a recognised bowler of real pace and, if Darren Gough is injured, a true spearhead. These are 'must have' types if England hope to dismiss Australia's powerful batting line-up cheaply on anything like a regular basis. The pitch on the opening day at the Gabba will probably be the most favourable for this England attack and, with Shane Warne unavailable, it might be worth asking Australia to bat first if the conditions are at all helpful.

It would be a big gamble and an important test for Alan Mullally. England are hoping his bowling will help overcome their reliance on right-arm fast-medium seamers, but while the Australians will be wary of Mullally's new-found reputation, they have the advantage. They know he failed to make an impression at shield level a few years ago - and he knows they know. This will turn into a huge advantage for the batsmen if Mullally does not start on a high note.

If England lose the series, as I expect, it will look as though the batsmen are totally to blame when there are collapses. However, the bowlers will actually be partly at fault. If they are not capable of restricting Australia to reasonable totals, then eventually the mountain of runs will result in a landslide and the England batsmen will be buried under their opponents' relentless attack. It is a simple ploy, but it has proved very effective against England, when used first by Allan Border and then Mark Taylor.

At full strength, Taylor will have a well-balanced bowling combination able to exert pressure on most pitches and sooner or later the England batting line-up will succumb. Glenn McGrath is the most important ingredient in this potent recipe, even more so than Warne. He is the warhead who makes explosive early forays and, if he succeeds, Taylor then manipulates the attack superbly, backed up by brilliant fielding which rarely offers the opposition batsmen a second chance. If McGrath continues his dominance over Mike Atherton then England's sheet anchor is out of the way and the batting becomes vulnerable. If the England batsmen do not find ways to score regularly off McGrath and do not punish the loose balls bowled by Warne, then they will be contributing to their downfall.

If Taylor has at his disposal McGrath, Warne and Jason Gillespie for the bulk of the series then I cannot see Australia losing a match. More to the point, if none of Australia's 'big three' were available, I still could not see England winning a match. Despite the improvement shown by England, they still concede big totals when bowling on hard pitches. Against South Africa at Old Trafford the opposition declared with more than 500 on the board and England will encounter those conditions often in Australia and the locals are a stronger batting side than Hansie Cronje's team.

Then on pitches with a bit of pace and bounce (i.e. Lord's) the England batting has a recent history of crumbling. Scores of 110 against South Africa and 77 against Australia cannot be forgotten, especially when England will be confronted by a bouncy pitch for at least three out of five Tests. Then there was the Oval disaster where Muttiah Muralitharan sliced through the England batsmen like a sharp knife into melting butter. That cannot instil confidence for the contest with Warne.

It must be cause for further concern that, in the opening two tour matches, Australian first-class teams (with some internationals missing) built up decent totals and then a trio of energetic young pace bowlers ripped into the top order. In boxing parlance, I can see England side-stepping some trouble by bobbing and weaving for long periods, but I doubt they can either avoid or deliver the odd knockout blow. If they were capable of delivering they should have done so by now.