When England clinched a fighting series win over South Africa last summer, it suggested improvement under the aggressive leadership of Alec Stewart. However, everything they've done since, from a comprehensive Test beating by Sri Lanka to a stumbling one-wicket victory over Queensland, points to the same old inconsistent England.

To further add to England's growing woes, the two inept batting displays in Cairns were closely scrutinised by Ian Healy, one of the driving forces behind Australia's success dating back to 1989. From what he saw, it wouldn't surprise me if Healy's report to Mark Taylor is restricted to simply saying ``situation normal all fouled up''.

There is no doubt that despite all the problems England have encountered on this tour, the Australian players will be wary of their opponents. Nevertheless, they will know deep down that if the screws are applied in the match which started this morning in Brisbane, and England are beaten, then there is potential for the opposition to unravel.

The first two pitches in the series are quick with a bit of bounce - the type of surfaces on which England have had trouble in the recent past. If the Australian speedsters get on top early and remain dominant, then there may not be much of the carcass left for Shane Warne to feed on when he returns from injury.

The major advantage for Australia is psychological. The bulk of Taylor's team have been involved in administering previous beatings and many of the current England players have been on the receiving end. Another hammering at the Gabba would set off any inferiority complexes lurking beneath the surface and this could lead to another drubbing at the WACA in Perth.

England may have come back hard to win the series against South Africa, but this Australian team aren't noted for their on-field charity and there still remains a bit of the old Allan Border ``grind 'em into the turf'' attitude.

The psychological factor shouldn't be underestimated, as the swing to Australia could be sudden and dramatic. England's four major players - Stewart, Mike Atherton, Darren Gough and Angus Fraser - have all experienced a lot of Ashes disappointments and despite their positive approach and fighting qualities, further reversals will have a debilitating effect.

In addition, a failure by the ``core four'' to get England off to a good start in the series will have a demoralising effect on some of the less confident individuals in the side and they could start to act as a handbrake on progress. The Australians have the wherewithal to overcome a sluggish start to the series, but I seriously doubt that this applies to England.

England have a dilemma before a ball is bowled. Whenever they opt for seven batsmen it announces that they are worried about the batting in general and, in particular, the inability to get a decent start. When they pick five bowlers it sends a strong message that they believe a win is possible. The toss then becomes the next important indicator. When the flick of the florin favours Stewart, any move to send the opposition in could be construed as shielding the top order from the opposition's quick men.

For his part, Taylor is always comfortable batting first and this isn't solely dependent on having Warne at his beck and call. He has found pace every bit as effective in the fourth innings as Warne and as long as this continues the ability of Stuart MacGill to turn his leg-break will spell danger.

It is this variety in attack and the lack of dependence on a nucleus of players that make Australia a stronger and more reliable unit than England. Australia can recover from early setbacks because of the mental strength of Steve Waugh, the determination of Healy and the brilliance of Ricky Ponting. They also have the ability to withstand long periods without a wicket, comfortable in the knowledge that something will soon happen with an imaginative captain, a diverse attack and fieldsmen who rarely allow batsmen a second chance.

Actually, Warne's absence will be felt almost as much for his all-round qualities as his wicket-taking potential. Until he returns the slip cordon is weakened and the tail is less productive - positives for England that they need to capitalise on to ensure Australia don't receive a huge boost from winning with a weakened combination.

While I can't see England bowling Australia out twice cheaply and winning a Test in this series, they do have the potential to make it a hard, grinding affair. If Stewart's men can keep it close for long enough then the breaks may just go their way and an upset is possible.

However, if they wilt early there will be no coming back and Australia could run away with the series. We may well know the answer to the question ``are they contenders or just pretenders?'' before the Gabba Test is over.