There were some who were surprised by Taylor's decision to insert England, but he was gambling on a helpful pitch as well as the overcast conditions. This is where Taylor gained the advantage of the little bit of luck a good captain needs.

After not bowling a ball on the day when he wanted to use the overcast conditions, he awoke to another dull grey day that was bitterly cold. Once again conditions were perfect for pace bowlers, and he had one of the best in Glenn McGrath to take full advantage.

Once McGrath had prised out two England batsmen with the new ball, even Alec Stewart's magnificent first Test century against Australia could not quite take the game out of Taylor's control.

Taylor has the uncanny knack of knowing when to change bowlers and when to let them have just a little longer to ply their trade. He showed perfect judgment in being patient with newcomer Matthew Nicholson and, despite a bit of pasting, he kept the paceman going and was rewarded with Nasser Hussain's wicket.

Then, after McGrath had a heated battle with a determined Dean Headley, he did not panic when Graeme Hick hit a huge six of Stuart MacGill - and eventually the leg-spinner claimed his revenge.

Taylor is a gambler, as he showed at Old Trafford in 1997 when he batted first against all the local wisdom and went on to win a crucial match in the series. This time he gambled that Australia's best chance of winning the match was bowling first, but he will also be aware that history suggests it is always difficult chasing anything around 250 in the fourth innings at the MCG.

England set the tone with a quickly scored 270, which gave them a chance for victory. Taylor was hoping that a combination of Australia's good batting and some wayward England bowling would ensure he would not be chasing something similar in the second innings.

It is rare for Taylor's judgment to be wrong.