If the record overseas in the last 10 years - five wins and 17 defeats in 40 Tests - is not sufficient evidence, the previous decade's results, 13 wins and 19 defeats from 53 matches abroad from 1977 to 1987, had already pointed the way.
Others have got better; England have got worse, but as the price of the Mars bar indicates inflation, so results against Australia are the real gauge. England were, to coin a phrase, murdered, for the second home series in succession against Australia four years ago: that was the time to begin deep-seated changes, not in the year 2000.
The failure to win any of the five major matches in Zimbabwe will at least have the effect of accelerating remedial action. The announcement of a national cricket academy with MCC support at Shenley in Hertfordshire is close. Dennis Silk, who retired as TCCB chairman last October, was thwarted when he tried to push this through 18 months ago, but he and the MCC secretary, Roger Knight, have continued to work towards raising the necessary money and an academy could become formally organised by the spring.
Progress has been hampered by a complex legacy of ownership at Shenley and an unnecessary obsession with building a new indoor school there when a state-of-the-art building already exists at Lord's. Now that Lord MacLaurin is getting his teeth into his part-time role as chairman of the England and Wales Cricket Board, a decision is likely, combining the indoor facilities at Lord's with the equally good outdoor ones at Shenley. A finishing school for specially talented young players of various ages is not a panacea, but it can only help.
Decisions on structural changes to the professional game preferably a regional tier rather than two divisions of the championship, and the abolition of one of the one-day competitions will take longer and so will solutions to England's chronic under-achievement overseas, now the respon- sibility of Bob Bennett's England committee.
Perspective is essential as Mike Atherton's derided team attempt to stiffen the sinews again in Auckland. In Zimbabwe the Test 'series' - that is to say two matches on sluggish pitches affected by the weather - was not lost and England held control by the end of each; but, crucially, it took them too long to wrest that control. The 3-0 thrashing in the limited-overs games cannot be excused but the tour selection was not made with these matches in mind and one or two specialists, notably perhaps Mark Ealham, Adam Hollioake and Peter Martin, would have made a significant difference.
County cricket is not as weak as is glibly stated so often. Overseas players use it to hone their game and the home players who emerge do not all travel badly. England's A team won six and lost only one of 10 testing matches in Australia before Christmas, continuing the success of their predecessors in Pakistan, India and South Africa; and the under-19 tour of Pakistan has followed a similar recent pattern of success.
Nor are prospects in New Zealand necessarily bleak. Fortunes can suddenly swing and a change of scene offers at least a chance to break free from the depressing cycle of failure. Look, for example, how the Australians dominated the first two Tests of their current series against the West Indies, whereupon their selectors, who are normally so intelligent, made two foolish changes to their batting and a beaten side picked itself up.
Alas, England have no Curtly Ambrose, but, watching him in Brisbane and Sydney I did not agree with those who said that the champion's spark had gone forever and equally I do not agree that the current England side is seriously short of individual talent, transformed though it might be by a truly fast bowler and a wrist spinner of quality. What has been lacking is team cohesion, that precious ability to make more than the sum of the parts. Zimbabwe managed it; England did not.
The arrival in Auckland of Dominic Cork, the best contemporary English bowler and the 15th best in the world, is a greatly needed fillip. He will be fresh and eager and so long as he bowls with his head as well as his heart he should give England a sharper edge against a side who could only draw 2-2 with Zimbabwe on home pitches at Hamilton and Auckland a year ago. Since then New Zealand have turned to an Australian coach and achieved what was once almost impossible, a Test victory in Pakistan, but if England can only start to punch their proper weight there is no need to revise the original assessment that they should be marginally the better of two relatively modest sides.
It is to their advantage, at least, that the Tests come first in this itinerary. If England lose the three-match series - and it is far easier to draw than it is to win at Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch - they will no doubt suffer further humiliations in the five internationals with which the tour concludes in late February and early March.
The reverse scenario is equally feasible. England have won four Tests and three series since New Zealand's last victory against them in 1986. The 2-0 success in New Zealand five years ago, the only victory in an overseas series for 10 years, was inflated in value a little by the fact that the home side gambled with a wet pitch in the second Test having lost the first by collapsing against Phil Tufnell at the eleventh hour.
New Zealand have had some false dawns since, but with Steve Rixon, the former Australian wicketkeeper, as their coach and Sir Richard Hadlee and Martin Crowe now involved as specialist coaches, they are improving at a dangerous time for England.
Chris Cairns is fit again, Danny Morrison is not ruled out after his latest injury, Simon Doull is a talented swing bowler who was man of the match when Pakistan were beaten in Lahore and there is yet another leg- spinner on the horizon. Greg Loveridge broke his hand before he could bowl in his only Test last year but Hadlee describes him as ``very promising . . . an attacking, wickettaking bowler''.
New Zealand's potential weakness is in batting. Stephen Fleming, with a Test average of 36, is their only player in the top 20 in the Coopers and Lybrand ratings. With Mark Greatbatch, now vicecaptain, at six, however, and the nuggety captain, Lee Germon, at seven or eight depending on where the dangerous Cairns comes in, England may struggle to bowl them out.
THE chief interest in the three matches, two of them first-class, which precede the first Test, will lie in whether Andrew Caddick can rise above his perplexing obscurity so far. If England are to persist with Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper, five genuine bowlers rather than a mediocre all-rounder makes more sense.
New Zealand clearly marks the point of no return for this England team, certainly for Mike Atherton and possibly for David Lloyd, though he has only been coach for eight months. Atherton's fitness and return to form is crucial. Inflexibility is his weakness as well as his strength but it is essential that he should recog- nise the folly of his psychological approach to the Zimbabwe tour.
By all means say to the team behind closed doors, ``We're the better team and we're going to win'', and by all means believe it. But the belief that brave words in public will somehow undermine the opposition is naive and counter-productive. It might work against dim- witted heavyweight boxers but the approach from the start in Zimbabwe should have been to stress time and again that winning would not be easy against a fast-improving side with several fine cricketers, instead of damning them as ``bits and pieces'' players.
Again, instead of shutting themselves together, England should, from the start, have been putting themselves about, like MCC missionary sides of old. This was the job of John Barclay, Lloyd and Atherton himself and if it is true that the impression left was of a mean and miserable team, the failure was theirs.
England were always going to have to play at their best to beat Zimbabwe in the two Tests on the expected slow pitches against a tightly knit side with at least four genuinely good Test cricketers in the Flower brothers, Heath Streak and Paul Strang, augmented by a dangerous new-ball bowler in Eddo Brandes and several other natural games-players determined to do well and with nothing to lose. Unless England raise their game they will lose to New Zealand too. But they are capable of better.