By then the Ashes will be lost or won and the counties will hope to have reached a consensus on a future format which will safeguard their traditions and their commercial viability whilst giving the main breadwinner, the national team, the best possible chance of success.

Warwickshire, county champions in 1994 and 1995, are 5-1 favourites to claim the Britannic Assurance title again this season, but the winner of the 70,000 prize, the largest yet for the major domestic trophy, is likely to come from one of three counties with London links: Kent, Surrey or Essex.

Only eight of the other 15 counties have any realistic chance: Leicestershire, the holders; Derbyshire, with their powerful fast bowling now augmented by a leg-spinner; Warwickshire, champions in 1994 and 1995; Somerset, with Dermot Reeve to galvanise them as coach; Glamorgan, assuming Waqar Younis is soon fit; Yorkshire, young, talented and improving; Worcestershire, who finished a place behind Yorkshire in seventh last year; Middlesex, in Angus Fraser's benefit season; and Lancashire, provided Wasim Akram, the other half of Pakistan's famous pair of opening bowlers, is soon fit and able to justify his large salary.

There will be much more talk about salaries if cricket is to go down the road of transfers, promotion and relegation, but for the moment many will be grateful that a system which has produced some exciting matches and close title chases in successive years is to continue for at least one more season unmolested. It is worth remembering that the present format is hardly old and crusted: it was only in 1993 that the championship became entirely comprised of four-day matches.

Kent, who finished fourth last year and who play the 1996 runners-up, Derbyshire, in the first round of matches at Canterbury today, have their best chance for many years to win. Now Alan Wells has been added to the likes of Trevor Ward, Matthew Walker and Matthew Fleming, they should, even without Carl Hooper, have the batting strength needed, especially when Ed Smith and a small host of promising undergraduate batsmen become available.

There is no questioning that they have the most dangerous bowling in the land, led by Martin McCague, Dean Headley, Alan Igglesden, Min Patel and the talented new recruit Paul Strang, with ample reserves of seam and swing. After Hooper and Aravinda de Silva, Kent cannot have found it easy to come up with a cricketer of equal attraction as their overseas expert but Strang, whose leg-breaks and googlies were consistently read by few if any of the England players in Zimbabwe, fits the bill. He can bat usefully too and his reputation as a good team man will also suit the new coach, John Wright of New Zealand, a man liked and respected.

Such was Wright's dedication as a county cricketer for Derbyshire that he once superglued his top hand to the handle of his bat to prove a theory about his technique. He scored a hundred but the batting glove was ruined and turning for second and third runs proved difficult.

Wright says now that a few years in commerce have taught him even more about the proper mental approach to professional sport. If Kent are still challenging when their university talent returns, they might win their first title since 1978.

Derbyshire, their opponents today, will have another opinion. With Devon Malcolm eager to perform in his benefit year (his list of patrons is almost a who's who of world statesmen) and Dominic Cork aware that his international career is on thin ice unless he calms down and performs much more consistently as a bowler than he did for England in New Zealand, they will be a fearsome prospect for opposing batsmen on pitches with any juice.

THESE two have the wily Phillip DeFreitas and the rising talent of Andrew Harris in support and Vince Clarke has been recruited from Leicestershire to repair the absence of a wickettaking spinner, which proved fatal to their chances last season.

Nevertheless, these two counties and Surrey are more likely favourites than Warwickshire, for all the return of Allan Donald to his second home in Birmingham. Surrey's campaign opens today with an interesting encounter against Somerset, now coached by Reeve, Warwickshire's irrepressible former captain. There are bound to be some interesting new ideas behind Somerset's approach but until Mushtaq Ahmed arrives, they will be without their best bowler.

For a while at least they will have the help of Andrew Caddick, a more relaxed character for his success in New Zealand. Peter Bowler, the new captain, is sure to give a disciplined lead to the batting and if the talent of Mark Lathwell and Marcus Trescothick can combine again, Taunton will be a place for entertainment.

Depending on freedom from injuries and Test calls, Surrey ought to go close to their first championship for 26 years, because their batting is formidable. Alec Stewart and Graham Thorpe will be on international duty for much of the season but Darren Bicknell, the Hollioakes, Chris Lewis, Mark Butcher, Alistair Brown and Nadeem Shahid provide good cover.

Shahid's former club, Essex, are no less strong in batting, with the indefatigable Graham Gooch still showing them all the way and Nasser Hussain, the captain, Paul Prichard and the gifted Australian Stuart Law all confident of good seasons.

Their first match today is at Chelmsford against Hampshire, for whom Jason Laney, Matthew Keech, Will Kendall and Dimitri Mascerenhas are young players to watch. Nor has Robin Smith abandoned hope of a Test place again. The same is true for Graeme Hick, who feels refreshed by a winter spent with his family and scarcely a glance at the Duncan Fearnley bat with which he has battered bowlers from Chester-le-Street to WestonSuper-Mare.

David Houghton, the new coach at Worcestershire and the mastermind behind England's embarrassment in Zimbabwe, knew that Hick needed his rest. Of his county team as a whole he will say only: ``The championship to me is the biggest competition . . . I'd certainly like to finish in the top five.''

THE campaign for Worcestershire starts today at Trent Bridge and despite the absence of the beneficiary, Richard Illingworth, who dislocated a shoulder playing in the Bradford League at the weekend, they will be eager to start better than they often do. Likewise Lancashire, who are at home to Durham, and must make full use of Mike Atherton and John Crawley while they can.

A pushover? Surely not any longer, yet despite the recruitment of David Boon, Jon Lewis, Nick Speak and Martin Speight, Ladbrokes offer an insulting 500-1 against Durham. Just to spite the bookies, I shall back them for a place at 250-1.

Even Sussex, with their five departures, are only quoted at 150-1. It will be important for them to make an early mark under the staunch and optimistic captaincy of Peter Moores against today's visitors, Northamptonshire.

Northants themselves are probably likely to be more effective again in one-day cricket, but the reverse is true of the holders, Leicestershire, who will have a chastened Alan Mullally back as new ball partner for David Millns and, they hope, an overseas replacement from South Africa for last year's hero, Phil Simmons. Not in time, however, for their opening match against Gloucestershire, whose own overseas recruit, Shaun Young, is in good form.

So to the bookies' not very original choices as favourites. Warwickshire have a tricky first match at Cardiff and they will do well to win it even on a ground where they have humiliated the Welshmen more than once in recent times. The absence of Nick Knight for at least another week almost compensates for Celtic disappointment at the delayed arrival of Waqar.

Yorkshire and Middlesex have Oxbridge opposition today and will not start their championship challenges for another fortnight. David Byas's second season as captain is perhaps more likely to end in triumph than Mike Gatting's last.

Good luck to them all and with 1,000 for the winners of each match and prize money for the top nine counties in the table, there will be no excuse for the slackness so often alleged, usually by those who do not watch much county cricket.