Date-stamped : 22 Apr1998 - 07:48 Cricket: A Numbers Game? by Karthik K Ramamurthy (karthik_kumar@hotmail.com) India meets Australia in the final league match of the Coca Cola Cup being held at Sharjah. With a command performance of three wins from as many matches, Australia have already assured themselves of a place in the Finals. Who will get the right to challenge them for the glittering Trophy? Since the other two teams -- India and New Zealand are tied at 2 points each, the situation becomes fairly straightforward if India wins the match. Based on their 4 points in that case, they will go into the Finals. What happens if they lose? Then, the Indians would be tied with the Kiwis at 2 points. It is then, that the important factor of Nett Run Rate will come into play. India, with an NRR of -0.32917 are currently ahead of New Zealand, who finished the League stages with an NRR of -0.40093. What does India need to do to sneak into the finals on better run-rate? Two scenarios arise: 1. India bat first tomorrow, and the Aussies successfully achieve the winning target. 2. The Aussies bat first, and Indian chase is unsuccessful. After a lot of number-crunching (using an Excel spreadsheet and calculating up to 4 decimal places), the computer came up with the following table that sums up the scenarios in which the Indians can nudge ahead of the Kiwis and move into the final. If India's score is in the They must not allow Australia to following range: win in less than the following number of overs: 125 & 133 42.4 134 & 149 42.5 150 & 167 43.0 168 & 185 43.1 186 & 204 43.2 205 & 224 43.3 225 & 244 43.4 245 & 266 43.5 267 & 289 44.0 290 & 313 44.1 314 & 338 44.2 339 & 364 44.3 What happens if Australia bats first? The computer racked it's brains and came up with the maximum margin of defeat India can allow, but still reach the final. If Australia's score is up to 179, India's margin of defeat should not be more than 31. If Australia scores over 179, and up to 330 (the assumption is that they wouldn't go above this mark!) India should not lose by more than 30 runs! There, then are the figures! Let's see what happens on the morrow! Contributed by Karthik (karthik_kumar@hotmail.com)